Energy Executive Briefs
Renewable electricity development has boomed over the past decade as the results of rapid industry maturity progress and government support intervention. This brief analyses renewables support mechanisms with a look at their evolution and effectiveness and a specific focus on RES auctions. Auctions prices have been going down over the past years, reaching "zero premium" in some cases. Can renewable power generation hold its own against fossil fuels without support?
LNG accounts 45% of natural gas trade today and is expanding rapidly: the market is expected to more than double by 2040. New importers and exporters have emerged, and new uses and technologies are fostering the development of LNG facilities and routes. Moreover, geopolitical factors remain a key driver, as LNG plays an important part in energy security strategies, while many main LNG producing regions and routes are experiencing instability.
Our latest analyst brief takes an in-depth look at foreign investments in the European electricity sector. It presents the strategies of the biggest players (China, Russia and the United States): where they have invested, in which kind of assets and technologies… This article offers an overview and details the latest moves of key companies.
In order to analyse the evolution of the energy systems for the coming years, we have defined 4 scenarios that will feed our quantitative analysis in the coming months.
In this brief, Patrick Criqui explains the different geopolitical, macro-economic and energy policy options behind the storytelling of each scenario.
In this analysis, we take a look at the situation in France and summarize the main scenarios on the evolution of energy consumption in 2020. Based on the first macroeconomic estimates available and the lessons learned from other periods of crisis, we estimate that the impact of two months of containment on final energy consumption in 2020 in France would have an effect higher to that observed during the last financial crisis in 2008 or the 1975 first oil shock.
Worldwide coal consumption decreased in 2019 for the first time, marking a decisive turning point. Meanwhile, many countries are planning a coal phase-out, and some funders are turning away from financing coal projects. However consumption in other countries, especially in Asia, still shows a strong growth. What are the long-term perspectives for coal?
Electrification is progressing worldwide, and often described as a low-carbon option. But electricity still generates a large amount of GHG emissions, with coal accounting for 38% of power generation. How can electrification be further decarbonised and can it be a key contributor to the energy transition? Read our latest analysis.
To which extent is China present on the African continent and for which reasons? What policies sustain its actions? This analysis focuses on China’s energy policy, its economic diplomacy through the Belt and Road initiative, and how this shapes its relationship with Africa. It stems from a report by Enerdata, the French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs (IRIS) and Cassini for the French Ministry of Defence.
A first analysis of our preliminary global CO2 estimates for 2019 based on monthly data, derived from energy-related CO2 emissions from Global Energy and CO2 data and energy-consumption data from EnerMonthly.
Our findings: the global CO2 emissions from energy combustion should grow by +1-1.5% in 2019, driven by an increase in energy consumption. Fossil fuels consumption is growing by +1.5-1.9%, the repartition however is changing, with a significant increase in gas, a slight decrease in coal, and a steady increase in oil.
This brief focuses on the policies and measures implemented to tackle energy poverty.
Energy poverty, or fuel poverty, is often defined as a situation where low-income households are not able to adequately provide basic energy services in their homes and for their transport at affordable cost. It is a major issue in emerging as well as in developed countries. In Europe, around 20% of households (i.e. ~50 million) were considered affected by fuel poverty in 2018.
In this brief, we examine the determinants for air-conditioning demand and how this demand will be evolving. The rise of temperatures around the world, while part of the equation, is far from being the only factor for determining future AC consumption, and the local economic situation, cultural traditions, and the existence of energy efficiency measures all play a role.
In our latest executive brief, we look at the rise in natural gas in G20 countries, with a special focus on the USA and China (which together make up 70% of global energy consumption growth) and how it will affect global gas markets.
A new template has been designed, to provide more analysis and insight on the energy market of a given country, and use more graphics within the text.
Multiple technologies are at the forefront of the energy transition in transport. We're all aware of electric vehicles – but is the decarbonization of electricity to power those electric vehicles happening quickly enough? And what about the role of biofuels?
In our latest Brief, we examine the progress being made in these technologies, and which countries are leading the way.
Many developed countries are now moving away from coal – the most carbon-intensive way to produce electricity – in their domestic power-mixes. But some emerging nations are just now starting to build coal-fired power plants. Find out why, and what this could mean for the transition to low-carbon global electricity, from our latest executive brief.
Transport is often the fastest growing sector for energy demand in emerging countries. Because the sector depends almost entirely on fossil fuels, this growth also has an outsized impact on GHG emissions.
Yet there have been notable improvements to energy efficiency of transport in many of the 16 emerging countries we analysed for this Executive Brief.
One effect of a successful energy transition will be a lessening of economic and geostrategic dependence on fossil fuels. But dependence will increase on certain critical materials, including lithium, cobalt and others.
With this in mind, how can advanced economies avoid becoming critically dependent on these materials?
Southeast Asia has made important advances in access to electricity and economic development, but struggles to reduce its carbon intensity in balance with these development demands.
Even more concerning, current NDCs are not strong enough to address the decarbonisation needed in a global two-degree scenario.
The development of information and communication technologies (ICTs) entails a deep transformation of energy systems, as digitization drives several types of "disruptive" changes within the energy sector.
What impact, positive and/or negative, will such changes have on the global energy industry? Read our latest executive brief to find out.
New increase in LNG supply capacity and in LNG trade (+10%) in 2017.
With +9.9 Mt and +9.5 Mt of added capacity respectively, Australia and the United States accounted for most of the surge in LNG global production (+25 Mt) in 2017. LNG trade also grew this year, with imports rising twice as fast as in 2016 : +10%, an increase driven by the European, Asian and Latin American markets.
Contrary to oil, gas markets are based on the availability of expensive transport infrastructure and have traditionally been regional (North America, Europe, and Far East Asia).
If the development of LNG trade in the last decades has made the three regional gas markets more interconnected and more interdependent, we are still far from a liquid gas market such as the global oil market.
Global renewable capacity additions continued to grow in 2017, with nearly 47 GW of wind capacity and close to 73 GW of solar capacity added worldwide during the year.
Wind installations slowed down for the second year in a row, following the trend in the two largest markets, namely China and the United States. They soared in India, Brazil and Europe, while solar capacities surged worldwide.
According to the 2018 Enerdata EnerFuture scenarios, half of the car fleet could be electric by 2050. Electric vehicles and other decarbonated EV technologies will contribute to limiting both GHG emissions and local air pollution by displacing gasoline and diesel consumption.
* EnerGreen scenario (2°C compatible), including electric and hybrid cars
Enerdata estimates a +2% growth of global energy-related CO2 emissions in 2017. This result shows a significant change in the trend, after a 3-year period of stability. The gap with a 2° scenario increases…
Based on our first estimates for 2017, wind power capacity and generation continued to soar in Brazil in 2017. After a 2.5 GW increase in 2016, wind power capacity is estimated to have surged by 24% in 2017 and wind generation is expected to near 45 TWh in 2017, i.e. 9 times the 2012 level and twice the 2015 level.
Today, just one Floating LNG (“FLNG”) unit is “on site”, and has yet to announce commercial operation. A handful more have made it through FID, but many have not moved beyond the concept stage.
In the case of Shell, projects have been stayed by political issues and changing economics. Petronas has niche developments, accessing domestic gas fields with FLNG, and has rescheduled deployment of a second vessel.
This analysis has been written by Thierry Bros member of Enerdata’s Expert Panel and natural gas market expert.
The old gold plated strategy failed to address new risks
It is important to bear in mind that building an international pipe is the most difficult part of the gas chain as it needs:
This analysis has been written by Patrick Criqui member of Enerdata’s Expert Panel and Senior Researcher at CNRS. Oil less than 30 dollars per barrel ($/bl)! No market observer would have thought this possible after only one year. Just as in 1998, it was thought that oil (then $20/bl) wouldn’t exceed $30: 10 years later, it was more than $110 on annual average after peaking at $147 following the economic crisis in 2008!
Dr. Patrick Criqui, senior researcher at LEPII-CNRS and a longtime member of Enerdata’s experts panel, has just published in the French website The Conversation the article titled, “American Shale Gas: A New Benchmark Price?”. Regularly contributing on highly discussed energy topics, Criqui addresses the recurring link between oil price and other energies. In an analysis outlining the economic crisis of 2008 and the following shale gas revolution in 2009, Criqui illustrates the competitive field between gas and oil as well as the industry’s growing impact on the international market. Will the decrease in oil prices pull down other fossil fuels?
Russia remains one of the largest oil producers in the world with 13% of the global oil supply in 2014; it is very important both for consumers and producers to have a vision of the current state and the longer-term prospects for the Russian oil industry development, especially as the current oil price conjuncture creates huge uncertainties. The Russian oil industry is going through a tough time at the moment: natural depletion of the Soviet legacy fields and an unfav
Uranium is the only resource presently used for nuclear power generation. However it has been known since the very early days of nuclear power technology development that thorium could also be used. In this executive brief, Enerdata discusses the advantages of thorium for future nuclear technologies in terms of safety and radioactive waste management, but also the hurdles that have prevented the development of thorium based reactors so far.
Malaysian government seems to have step up its efforts to rationalize the energy subsidies. After the poor performance of Subsidy Rationalization Program (SRP) rolled out in 2010, fuel price increases in 2014 represents a renewed effort from the government to reduce the subsidy burden on the Malaysian economy. Gas prices revision for power sector in January 2014 followed by gas price revision for industry in May 2014 and again in November 2014 show the pressure on policy makers to remove the inefficient subsidies.
As part of the Malaysian Electricity Supply Industry (MESI) reforms, Malaysian government has implemented Incentive Based Regulation (IBR) from 2014. This resulted in an increase in electricity tariffs to cover the higher costs of domestic piped gas, coal and LNG. High gas subsidies, expensive LNG and declining gas production has created a supply security problem for electricity industry in Malaysia where around 45% of electricity was generated from natural gas in 2013.
On 18 October 2014, the Government of India approved the revision of domestic gas price. The new price is a volume weighted average of Henry Hub, NBP, Alberta hub and Russia gas price . Under the new price scheme, domestic gas price will be $5.61/MMBtu from 1 November 2014 to 31 March 2015. This represents an increase of 50% from US$3.8/MMBtu (Gross Calorific Value) and will be revised every six months.
The National Development and Reforms Commission of China (NDRC) has implemented another round of price reforms. Effective from 1 September 2014, the price reforms will be applied on the existing volumes of natural gas and aim to bring the price of different sources of natural gas at the same level. The hike of RMB 0.4/cm (US$0.06/cm) will be beneficial for companies in the upstream business but it can also affect the gas demand that is sensitive to the price differential between gas and fuels like gasoline and diesel.
The European Union (EU) has been recording a serious drop of its oil refined products consumption since mid-2000s, as result of fuel substitution in industry and buildings and energy efficiency improvements in transport and since 2008 the economic crisis: the EU oil refined products consumption has dropped by more than 18%, from 4,840 mbl in 2005 to 3,950 mbl in 2013.
In this article, Enerdata comments on the ongoing developments in the Singapore LNG market. We describe and provide perspectives on the challenges that Singapore faces to develop a competitive and secure domestic natural gas market and participate in the international LNG market to develop a trading hub. Natural gas plays a dominant role in the energy industry of Singapore. As of August 2014, Singapore has 12.8 GW of operational power capacity, of which almost 80% (10 GW) of natural gas.
In this article, Enerdata reviews the ongoing developments in the China Nuclear market. We describe and provide perspectives on the challenges that China faces to develop a domestic nuclear market and to become a global Nuclear power technology exporter. Last month China''s State Nuclear Power Technology Corp (SNPTC) announced a further delay to the operational start of the country’s first advanced nuclear project based on designs by US-based Westinghouse.
It seems that the Gas-To-Liquid (GTL) industry may revive a new wave of interest for projects. Today we are used at GTL big size projects to enhance energy security and monetize gas as oil in place rich of gas and poor in oil. At the same time the development of new technology will allow GTL to be used in small scale. Small scale GTL will open up new resources such as capture gas from off-shore deepwater oil wells, target zero flare emissions, and make economic stranded small gas fields.
In 2013, 5.6% of global electricity production was generated by renewable sources (excluding hydroelectricity), and biomass accounted for 36% of the renewables supply.Figure 1 : Share of Renewables (excluding Hydro) in Electricity Production
Enerdata, an independent Research and Consultancy Firm specialized in the global energy industry and carbon market since 1991, published its annual analysis of world energy demand.
As part of our forecast model services, Enerdata presents its future R&D developments for the forecasting model related to electricity price in Japan. Due to high volume of expensive LNG imports, Japanese utilities companies are facing difficult times. The share of different energy sources in the power generation mix has been completely reshaped after Fukushima with an increase in thermal generation and decrease in nuclear generation that has affected the electricity price.
2013 is characterised by dynamic markets in the USA. Apart from the USA, the OECD countries are experiencing a mixed situation, as a result of the stagnation or the decline of their energy consumption. On the other hand, BRICS* countries, led by China, continue to show a strong growth, confirming their increasingly dominant role in the new global energy balances. As a result, energy-related CO2 emissions continue their increase (+2% in 2013, i.e.
Enerdata is launching a new LNG Market Monthly report and as part of this initiative we have put together a forward looking paper named “Natural Gas Trading Hub in Asia-Pacific”. The paper describes the latest development and trends and what a Gas Trading Hub may signify for Asia. Will Asia have one day cheap gas prices? Can after United States, European Union be a United Asia to lower the gas price? Procuring competitively priced gas and establishing a regional price indicator has become a critical concern for the governments in the Asia-Pacific.
The 2013 Gazprom’s results show that the Russian company is still the dominant gas exporter to the European Union (EU), which contrasts with its expected declining role announced over the past years. With 138 bcm delivered to the EU in 2013, Gazprom has increased its market share in the EU natural gas consumption from 24% in 2010 to 28% in 2013. Part of Gazprom’s market share increase can be explained by a fall of European Union LNG imports since the higher prices in Asia have re-routed the flows toward this continent.
Analysis based on our new Myanmar country report published in March 2014. Myanmar used to be one of the most isolated countries in the world. Once, one of the richest countries in Asia, in 2013 Myanmar was among the poorest countries, ranked 157th by International Monetary Fund (IMF). However, since the military dictatorship ended in 2011, the Republic of Union of Myanmar appears more and more as the next El Dorado for foreign investors.
In 2013, and for the third consecutive year, Japanese power production remained very dependent on fossil fuels. Electricity production from nuclear remained marginal (1%) as Japan, which used to generate 25% of its electricity from nuclear before Fukushima accident, took almost all of its operable nuclear reactors offline.
Enerdata is presenting a paper on 8 April 2014 at Singapore Chamber of Commerce regarding nuclear power industry with a focus for the Asia Region. As part of the paper work we looked at the main Asian providers of nuclear technology namely, Toshiba, Hitachi and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.
As part of our South East Asia Gas & Power Service we look at key international players that can have an impact into the Energy Industry of the region. This week analysis is about Gazprom, the Russian based company with the biggest world supply of gas. Russia is strategically and geographically connected with Europe and China two major energy users. With Europe there are already several gas pipelines that supply gas to European countries and on the other hand with China they have been having talks about a new gas pipeline for many years now that soon or later will materialise.
To support the EU’s process of moving towards a low carbon economy, Enerdata recently produced detailed quantified scenarios for the energy sector and GHG emissions for the UK’s Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC). These scenarios and the public report assess costs and benefits to individual EU Member States under different scenarios of climate targets, effort sharing and renewables contribution to 2030, including abatement costs, permit trade, renewables support, improved air quality, and diversity of energy supply.
Opportunities for Japanese manufacturing firms to export electricity to the grid in the face of prohibitive global LNG prices
Japan remains the Asian country with the highest electricity and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) prices. Electricity prices in Japan have increased substantially in the post Fukushima years because of increased natural gas usage for electricity production. LNG demand and prices in Japan for the past five years have been increasing and the forecast for the next 10-15 years shows that the situation is not going to change.
India, the world''s fifth largest wind power producer in 2013, has set up an ambitious plan to boost solar and wind capacities to contribute to meet the strong projected demand. The government aims to double its wind installed capacity by March 2017 (end of the 12th Plan) by adding 20 GW to its current capacity of 20.3 GW (at year-end 2013). In addition, India also targets to install 10 GW of solar capacity, i.e. almost fourfold its capacity at year-end 2013 (2,4 GW).
In recent years, large reservoirs of natural gas have been found in particular in the Rovuma basin and gas resources are estimated at around 5 000 bcm ie more than twofold Qatari resources.
Enerdata published its annual analysis of world energy demand, based on its 2012 data for G20 countries. This report confirms several ongoing trends initiated in previous years, and notes an acceleration for some of them. Beyond these trends, noticeable shifts are the significant variations within the power mix, particularly between gas and coal, and the growing weight of the BRICS1.
Among G7 countries, strong countervailing effects were observed between gas and coal in the USA and in Europe. The massive development of unconventional gas production in the USA has made domestic Henry Hub gas prices drop by 30% in 2012, from US$4/MMBtu on average in 2011 to US$2.75/MMBtu in 2012 (yearly averages).
An analysis of whether the European Union will be able to achieve its 2020 and 2050 objectives in terms of emissions reductions and penetration of renewables in its energy mix.
With a 75% share, hydroelectricity is by far the main contributor to electricity generation from renewables in Europe. In 2011, it accounted for 16% of total electricity production and more than 20% of the total installed generation capacity. With 220 GW of installed capacity , hydroelectricity still dwarves wind power that stands at 96 GW. Despite its dominance, hydroelectricity is seldom discussed as a renewable energy resource of significance or importance.
In its latest World Energy Outlook, the International Energy Agency announced an upcoming golden age for natural gas with the strong growth of gas demand expected in the coming years, especially in Asia and with the development of shale gas resources. But the picture varies by region.
Smart grids are seen by many as an effective solution to address some of the toughest challenges the electricity industry has faced so far; the integration of renewables on a very large scale, the promised rise in number of electric vehicles, the necessity of energy efficiency, the improved security of supply or the arrival of the ‘prosumer’. Equipment manufacturers and IT solution providers are eagerly awaiting the hundreds of billions of euros to be invested over the next decades.
In 2010, the French Ministry of Research funded a three-year study to analyze possible solutions leading to a reduction in CO2 emissions that could be feasibly implemented across a large city. This study sought to construct cost-effectiveness indicators in various sectors (building, transport, non-carbon energy production). Cost-effectiveness ratios measure the effort required to implement a solution and the impact in terms of CO2 savings.
In compliance with the European Directive on energy efficiency adopted in 2006 (2006/32/EC), Poland presented its National Energy Efficiency Action Plan (NEEAP), which lays down a final energy savings target of at least 9% in 2016, i.e. 53.5 TWh.
The Black Tuesday on July 31st marked perhaps the greatest power outage in world history: the blackout occurred in 20 of India's 28 States and affected 3 of its 5 grids (Northern, Eastern and North-eastern). With an estimated 600 million people without electricity, 50% of the population, this large-scale incident reveals the stress the Indian power system has been experiencing over the last decade.
The year 2011 was a record year for the solar photovoltaic industry, with more than 29 GW new capacity installed worldwide, corresponding to a 70% increase compared to 2010. Global PV capacity exceeded 69 GW in 2011, with 70% installed in European countries.
Implementation of biofuels polices is complex due to diversity of interests and concerns. Countries around the world are utilizing different approaches to policy design, but with common goals of supporting biofuels development and economic growth, protecting the environment, and increasing energy security. This blog examines several different approaches to policy design and the current state of biofuels production. Biofuels are manufactured from biomass; wastes and residues of biological origin and energy crops. First generation biofuels are made from sugar, starch, and vegetable oil.
Over the last 20 years, coal consumption and -to a lesser extent- oil consumption have steadily decreased to the advantage of electricity in the European industry. In the meantime the natural gas penetration slowed down, stabilizing during the 2000s. What are the uses of electricity in industry? What are the reasons for this large penetration?
The country’s target is to reach 7 000 wind turbines (3 000 of which offshore) by 2020 with an installed capacity of 34 GW. In January 2010, the Crown Estate awarded nine offshore wind energy zones. The aim of Round 3 is to install a total capacity of 32 GW in the UK. Several major wind projects are scheduled for completion in 2012.
The Japanese are large electricity consumers; their consumption per capita reached 7,700 kWh in 2010, i.e. the same level as the OECD average but 30 % higher than the EU average. The share of electricity represented about 25% of total energy consumption in 2010, compared to 21% for the OECD average and 20% in Europe. Nuclear power contributes to more than ¼ of the electricity production, the same contribution as coal and gas.
Power generation in Japan (2010)
Energy prices in Europe have continued to increase in 2011 by almost 15%, and should continue to grow if crude oil price remain above $100/bbl. Past crude oil price increases have impacted households’ energy bill strongly. Will housing energy expenditures continue to be impacted the same way in the future?
Until recently, the main point of discord in the climate debate surrounded the opposition of investing in fossil fuels as opposed to investing in renewable sources. Since the Fukushima accident in 2011, the discussion has shifted towards the merit of investing in nuclear against investing in renewables, with the potential side-effects of nuclear technologies overshadowing the potential externalities of carbon emissions in the public debate. However, given the present and projected future technology costs, is such a divide well-founded when considering long-term climate goals?
This analysis relies on the ODYSSEE data base and analysis as well as on a report prepared by Enerdata for ADEME “Quantitative evaluation of explanatory factors of the lower energy efficiency performance of France for space h
Water heating represents about 15% of households’ energy uses in Europe, 20% in the United States and even 30% in Japan. Switching from electricity and gas to solar water heating could strongly reduce fossil fuel consumption and CO2 emissions.
Development of wind power has been important in recent years and this trend is expected to continue. More and more, this source of energy represents a significant share in the energy balances of several European countries. But variability of wind power remains a major challenge of this technology. For example, a wind turbine can start producing in the middle of the night when electricity demand is very low. Statistically, we can also observe that production of wind turbines is slightly higher at night than during the day.
In recent decades, nuclear energy was perceived by many analysts, policymakers, and utility managers as a reasonably affordable option to generate bulk electricity while satisfying both supply security and climate change concerns.
More than US$6,000bn1 -10% of the world Gross Domestic Product (GDP)- is spent each year in the world for energy purposes. This places energy second to health care expenditures in many countries; and in some cases first.
Breakdown of the consumer energy expenditures in 1990 and 2010
Discover the newest developments on the Indian energy market in the India energy report recently published by Enerdata. Read an extract from the report focusing on the India's issues and prospects related to power supply on the India Energy report.
Since 2009, the United States has been overtaken by China as the world's largest energy consumer. The country's consumption decreased in 2008 and 2009, but in 2010 increased at the rapid rate of 3.5%, reaching 2.2 Gtoe. Per capita consumption reached 7.1 toe, including 12 000 kWh of electricity; the country consumes about twice the European average. Discover the newest developments on the US energy market in the recent United States energy report recently published by Enerdata.
Discover the newest developments on the Chinese energy market in the recent china energy report recently published by Enerdata. Read the excerpts of China Energy Report and get information about where is China investing , Gas imports and CO2 emission levels etc..
Enerdata analyst presents a study on the World Nuclear Energy situation post the Fukushima disaster, a defining moment for the world energy market. It includes a review of the past as well as projections on the three major scenarios that can be envisioned for the Nuclear Projects around the world.