Country Energy Demand Forecast is an innovative service offering consumption projections to 2050, drilling down to end uses and industrial branches.
Leveraging an exclusive set of governmental statistics and Enerdata’s globally recognised demand model, this service offers robust and comprehensive projections in just a couple of clicks – leaving no need for modelling specialists!
It allows users to track underlying factors throughout the industry, transport, residential and services sectors, as well as the dynamics of future energy demand thanks to a built-in sensitivity analysis to assess the impact of key drivers on energy use.
Key Benefits
DETAILED DATA
- Energy demand forecasts by country up to 2050 with one-year steps
- Forecasts of oil, gas, coal and electricity consumption by sector:
- Industry
- Services
- Transport (including electric vehicles)
- Residential
- Calibration update to consider recent trends in energy demand
- Detailed down-to end-uses: electric vehicles, modal changes in transport, air conditioning in buildings, etc.
USER-FRIENDLY SOLUTION
- Intuitive interface accessible via web browser
- Powerful sensitivity analysis with sliders to observe instantaneously the impact of key drivers on both scenarios
- Access to demand drivers and key indicators
ALL-IN-ONE EXPERT SOLUTION FOR ALL USERS
- Access to the underlying assumptions and the reference year data
- Bottom-up modelling methodology with high-level granularity
- Explanation of the influence of key drivers in forecasting
- Assistance from our demand experts
- Data export
- default: .xls download
- option: monthly delivery of updated data CSV through FTP
- option: custom API development
Towards Net Zero
This scenario assumes that the main EU targets currently under discussion or already voted have been achieved. Individuals, organisations, and companies have a proper understanding of climate change and are committed to developing effective solutions to reduce emissions. Ongoing research is improving technology for higher efficiency, while disruptive innovations are maturing. A strong trend towards electrification is evident in both low-temperature heating systems and road transport.
Objectives Delayed
This scenario results in a five to ten-years delay in achieving European climate targets. While technology continues to improve in efficiency, progress is still not substantial. Climate change awareness remains low, and there is a lack of behavioural change from individuals to reduce energy consumption. As a consequence, Europe misses its 2050 net-zero target.
- Adjust with the sensitivity analysis on 9 key drivers
- Extend to a range the values of our scenario results
- Observe the effect of key drivers on our assumptions in both scenarios
- Understand the influence of drivers in forecasting
Demand by energy
- Passenger/freight
- By mode
- By type of vehicles
- By type of energy/motor for road vehicles
- By type of building
- By energy label of building, for each type of building
- By end-use
- Electrical appliances
- Lighting technologies
- Several technologies per energy vector
- By branch: chemicals, food, non-metallic minerals and much more
- By Energy-Intensive Product -EIP
- Choice of up to 3 processes per EIP
- 3 types of uses: thermal uses, captive electricity, non-energy uses
- By branch: offices, hospitals and much more
- By end-use
- Electrical appliances
- Lighting technologies
- Several technologies per energy vector
Outputs
Demand by energy
- Electricity
- Oil
- Gas
- Coal
- Renewables
Specific consumption
- Energy intensive products
- Vehicle types
- End-uses
- Appliances
- ...
Socio-economics
- Industrial outputs
- Vehicle stocks
- Road traffic
- Dwellings, equipments
- ...
Indicators
- Energy intensity
- Energy expenses
- CO2 emissions
- ...
Countries Covered
8 countries currently available
France, Ireland, Italy, Germany, Netherlands, Poland, Spain and the United Kingdom.
Other countries towards the world available on-demand (if applicable).
Air conditionning consumption - France, Italy, Spain
Electricity consumption of transport - France, Italy, Spain
Total final consumption - France, Spain
EnerMED Model
Country Energy Demand Forecast relies on EnerMED model.
EnerMED is the latest version of the MEDEE models used under different versions since the mid-70’s, for several types of studies such as update of NDCs, national development plans, or efficiency policies evaluations.
The MEDEE models have been used:
- in 60 countries worldwide
- to provide energy demand forecasts and analysis by various actors of the energy sector (industry, governments, policymakers…)
- to produce reference demand forecasts showing the impact on energy demand of current energy and GHG policies and evaluate the change induced by energy efficiency and GHG measures.