Finally, an alternative choice is available in future power price data. Our Power Price Projections service gives you annual wholesale price projections backed by the energy modelling expertise of Enerdata and its globally recognised POLES model. The ultimate strategic tool for energy investors and developers to estimate their long-term returns on investments.
The proven methodological foundation of Power Price Projections is Enerdata’s proprietary POLES model: A robust, multi-country power projection model that is used by numerous energy companies, utilities, investors and developers worldwide.
Power Price Projections data utilizes historical spot prices through 2018, which are indexed to the POLES model’s wholesale price projections going forward.
The first advantage of the POLES modelling approach for capacity and production planning is that it avoids the ‘winner-takes-all’ effect often observed in pure optimization models. Due to the consideration of historical capacity and production mixes, along with the introduction of non-economic competition parameters, POLES allocates electricity generation technologies on the basis of LCOEs and variable costs, with the possibility of more easily adjusting competition between these.
The POLES model considers technology classes with their technical, economic and environmental parameters, with a year-by-year, recursive approach presenting two main advantages compared with optimization models:
The other clear added-value of POLES is that sectoral energy demand is endogenous and can be modelled/refined by the user, who will find logical retroactions between supply and demand of electricity. Energy system optimization models, in contrast, generally use energy demand as an exogenous input parameter – once again reflecting either a fixed long-term assumption or a perfect long-term foresight for agents of the energy system.
Year y is split into two typical days and 12 two-hour slices each.
Describes a world with a lack of support for GHG emission mitigation.
Global temperature increase reaches +5°C to +6°C.
Based on the successful achievement of the 2030 NDC targets, which enable control of energy demand growth and CO2 emissions through 2030.
The result is a +3°C to +4°C climate change outcome.
Stringent climate policies and ambitious climate change mitigation trajectories lead to significantly improved energy efficiency and strong deployment of renewables.
Global temperature increase is limited to between +1.5°C and +2°C.