Energy Prices Forecast
Assess the evolution of energy prices on the international and regional markets, as well as end-users prices
Explore future energy prices and the effects of various framework conditions on climate change and regulation. Our forecasts are based on the POLES model which includes a pricing simulation module, to simulate the impact of future energy systems equilibrium on energy prices. Global, regional and local marketplaces are included in the simulation efforts, to understand economic trends on markets that result in price evolutions on a mid to long term scope.
- Oil, gas and coal prices forecasts on international and main regional markets
- Through the POLES model, we forecast the energy prices on world and regional markets, according to assumptions on economic development, recoverable resources and carbon constraints.
- Scope: oil, gas, power and coal markets.
- End-user prices forecasts
- POLES forecasts energy prices for final users, taking into consideration specific market conditions, the regulatory status and the upcoming tension on the energy markets by zone and by country.
- Scope: industry, transport, power generation, residential & services.
- Baseload and peak-load generation costs forecasts
We forecast the costs of power generation by simulating the evolution of the power capacity mix, accounting for centralized and distributed power generation technologies.
- Carbon impact on energy prices
The carbon constraint largely impacts energy prices. We have the capability to assess the impact of a given level of constraint on energy prices, or undertake analysis on the combined impacts between energies of a carbon policy implementation.
- DG Environment (European Commission): Macroeconomic impacts of shale gas extraction in the EU.
- French Ministry of Energy & Sustainable Development (France): Reference scenarios on long-term forecasts of energy-climate-air for France with bi-annual updates. Use of the MedPro and POLES models for energy and emissions forecasting.
Synthesis note for 2011 scenarios