EnerBase describes a world in which existing policies are tendentially continued and trends recently observed are pursued. The lack of support for GHG emission mitigation affects entire energy systems over a long period, with increasing energy demand and limited fuel diversification. This scenario leads to a temperature rise by 5-6°C.
EnerBlue is based on the successful achievement of NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) as defined after the COP-21 in Paris. Sustained growth in emerging countries is a powerful driver of global energy demand, but NDCs play a key role in controlling the pace of growth. This scenario leads to a global temperature rise between 3°C and 4°C.
EnerGreen explores the implications of more stringent energy and climate policies, with countries fulfilling their NDC commitments and then regularly revising their emissions goals. These changes lead to significant improvements in energy savings and a strong deployment of renewables. In this trajectory, global temperature increase is limited to 2°C.
EnerBlue Covid is a variant of the EnerBlue scenario, in which mainly macroeconomic and fuel price assumptions were adjusted to account for the expected short-term impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, as well as its potential long-term implications. The level of global effort towards GHG emissions mitigation has not been significantly re-evaluated and the overall achievement of the NDCs has not been jeopardised by the changes made.
Energy Demand Forecasting: Oil products consumption of transport (ktoe) from 2010 to 2050 in India