Energy Research & Data

Global Energy Forecasts: EnerFuture

Global and Country-level Energy Forecasts through 2050

EnerFuture

EnerFuture provides energy projections through 2050. Our service offers clear insight into the future of energy demand, electricity generation, prices and GHG emissions by energy source and sector at both country and regional levels. The service provides a consistent set of data based on an exclusive and well proven modelling methodology.

A useful tool to assess the evolution and drivers of energy markets worldwide, EnerFuture will help you define your business' strategic decisions.

New Scenario:

Enerblue-Covid, taking into account the macro-economic shock and its implications - details below

2020 Updates:

  • Projections up to 2050 for the three Enerdata scenarios (EnerBase, EnerBlue and EnerGreen - details below)
  • Extended country coverage in the Middle-East with the addition of Saudi Arabia
  • Updated data from Enerdata’s latest statistics
  • Optimised online interface.

 

Key Features

 

 

  • Global coverage of 65+ countries and aggregates
  • Long-term projections (through 2050) based on the globally recognised POLES model
  • Analysis of the evolution of international oil, gas and coal prices
  • All energies covered: oil, gas, coal, electricity and biomass plus CO2 emissions
  • Annual demand and price forecasts by sector and by energy
  • Energy transition indicators : energy and CO2 intensities, share of renewables, degree of electrification in final energy demand
  • CO2 emissions forecasts by fuel and by sector
  • Power mix forecasts (capacities and production)
    Both fossil fuels and renewable energies covered
  • Projections based on data updated to 2018
  • Four detailed scenarios
  • 24/7 online access
  • Updated historical data from 2000 - 2018
  • Data available in graphs and tables for country and scenario benchmarking (expanded data visualisation options with custom pie charts, line graphs and bar graphs directly in our online interface)
  • Data export in .csv format to integrate with your own databases and models
  • User-friendly interface with unlimited MS-Excel exports

 

Optional module:

Ask about our optional modules

 

Key Benefits

 

  • Easy access to the comprehensive and complex POLES model:
    • POLES is a point of reference for energy systems modelling and forecasting worldwide
    • The model uses dynamic simulation of supply and demand with endogenous calculation of energy prices
    • Detailed description of the POLES model included
    • Modelling methodology and scenarios are made explicit
  • Independent view: Enerdata is not linked to any governmental bodies or energy companies
  • Can be benchmarked against other sources
  • Regular updates
  • Global forecast consistent with country-specific energy balances
  • Support from the experienced Enerdata Global Energy Forecasting specialists    

 

Geographical Coverage

65+ countries and aggregates

 

Country List

 

EUROPE

Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Croatia
Czech Republic
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
The Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
United Kingdom
Baltic States*

Europe aggregates:

Europe

European Union*

Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania)

AMERICAS

Canada
United States

Mexico

Brazil

Argentina

Chile

Americas aggregates:

North America

Latin America

Central America*, Mexico* and the Caribbean*

Central America* and the Caribbean*

South America excluding Brazil, Argentina, and Chile (includes Colombia, Venezuela, Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, Suriname, Guyana, Paraguay, Uruguay)*

ASIA

India
China
Indonesia
Japan
South Korea
Malaysia
Thailand
Vietnam

Asia aggregates*:

Asia

South Asia (excluding India)

Rest of Southeast Asia

PACIFIC

Australia
Pacific (aggregate)

CIS

Russia
Ukraine

CIS aggregates*:

CIS

Other CIS (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan)

AFRICA

Algeria-Libya*
Egypt*
Morocco-Tunisia*
South Africa

Africa aggregates*:

Africa

Northern Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa (excluding South Africa)*

MIDDLE EAST

Saudi Arabia

Middle East aggregates:

Middle-East*

Gulf Countries*
Mediterranean (excl. Gulf countries)*

 

*Note: Price Forecast unavailable

 

 

EnerFuture Scenarios

EnerBase

EnerBaseEnerBase describes a world in which existing policies are tendentially continued and trends recently observed are pursued. The lack of support for GHG emission mitigation affects entire energy systems over a long period, with increasing energy demand and limited fuel diversification. This scenario leads to a temperature rise by 5-6°C.

 

EnerBlue

EnerBlueEnerBlue is based on the successful achievement of NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) as defined after the COP-21 in Paris. Sustained growth in emerging countries is a powerful driver of global energy demand, but NDCs play a key role in controlling the pace of growth. This scenario leads to a global temperature rise between 3°C and 4°C.

 

 

 

EnerGreen

EnerGreenEnerGreen explores the implications of more stringent energy and climate policies, with countries fulfilling their NDC commitments and then regularly revising their emissions goals. These changes lead to significant improvements in energy savings and a strong deployment of renewables. In this trajectory, global temperature increase is limited to 2°C.

 

 

 

EnerBlue Covid

enerblue covidEnerBlue Covid is a variant of the EnerBlue scenario, in which mainly macroeconomic and fuel price assumptions were adjusted to account for the expected short-term impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, as well as its potential long-term implications. The level of global effort towards GHG emissions mitigation has not been significantly re-evaluated and the overall achievement of the NDCs has not been jeopardised by the changes made.

 

 

Data Series Covered

  • Energies and Emissions: oil, gas, coal, electricity, biomass and CO2 emissions
  • Power: production and capacities by energy type: fossil fuels, nuclear, and renewables (wind, solar, etc.)
  • Demand: total demand and demand by sector
  • Sectors: power production, industry, transport and buildings (which includes residential, services and agriculture)

 

Previews

Energy Demand Forecasting: Oil products consumption of transport (ktoe) from 2010 to 2050 in India

Energy Demand Forecasting - Transport oil products consumption

More previews

 

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T: +33 4 7642 2546

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