The new EnerBase scenario describes a world with a lack of support for GHG emission mitigation, affecting the entire energy system over a long period. Energy demand increases globally, driven by economic and population growth, while technological advances and fuel diversification — namely a moderate renewable expansion — help to slightly curtail the impact on emissions, yet global temperature increase reaches +5°C to +6°C.
The EnerBlue scenario is compatible with a +3°C to +4°C climate change outcome. EnerBlue provides an outlook on the energy system based on the successful achievement of the 2030 NDC targets (as announced at COP21 in Paris and since revised). Global energy demand increases, driven by growth in China and other emerging countries, but NDCs enable control of both demand growth and CO2 emissions through 2030.
The EnerGreen scenario explores the implications of more stringent climate policies. Countries fulfill their NDC commitments and regularly revise their emissions goals. Ambitious climate change mitigation trajectories are specific to each region and built using a new, proven methodology incorporating effort-sharing regulations. These changes lead to significant improvements in energy efficiency and a strong deployment of renewables. In this greener trajectory, global temperature increase is limited to between +1.5°C and +2°C.
Energy Demand Forecasting: Oil products consumption of transport (ktoe) from 2010 to 2040 in India