Global energy supply, demand, prices forecasting model.

Enerdata, in collaboration with LEPII (formerly IEPE - Institute of Energy Policy and Economics) and IPTS, coordinates studies on long-term energy outlooks at world level with the POLES model. The POLES model provides a valuable tool for addressing the long-term energy, technology and climate change issues. Its world dimension makes explicit the linkages between the energy demand and supply.

The model simulates the energy demand and supply for 32 countries and 18 world regions. There are 15 energy demand sectors (main industrial branches, transport modes, residential and service sectors), about 40 technologies of power and hydrogen production. For the demand, behavioral equations take into account the combination of price and revenue effects, technico-economic constraints and technological trends.

Oil and gas supply profiles are projected for the main producing countries from a simulation of the drilling activity and discovery of new reserves, given the price, the existing resources and the cumulative production.

The integration of import demand and export capacities of the different regions are included in the international energy market module, which balances the international energy flows. The changes in international prices of oil, gas and coal are endogenous, taking into account the Gulf capacity utilization rate for oil, the reserve on production ratio for oil and gas, and the trend in productivity and production costs for coal.

The POLES model has been used in many forecasting studies, at both national and international levels. In particular it supported the WETO 2030 report (published in 2003) and the WETO-H2 2050 report (published in 2007) for the European Commission, as well as the quantitative scenarios of the WEC (World Energy Council) in 2007.

For further information about this model and its applications, or to define an evaluation of your needs, please contact us