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POLES : Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems

A comprehensive simulation model for global energy supply, demand and prices

POLES is used and developed by Enerdata in collaboration with the European Commission’s JRC IPTS and University of Grenoble-CNRS (EDDEN laboratory). It is used to provide quantitative, scenario-based, empirical and objective analyses by many members of the energy sector (private companies, governments, supranational organizations). POLES input data is updated yearly and allows to describe full development pathways of the energy sector to 2050 with worldwide coverage.

POLES Methodology

POLES is a world energy-economy partial equilibrium simulation model of the energy sector until 2050, with complete modelling from upstream production to final user demand and greenhouse gas emissions. The simulation process uses year-by-year dynamic recursive modelling with endogenous international energy prices and lagged adjustments of supply and demand by world region. Well-adapted to forecast the effects of different energy-related issues (energy policies, promotion of renewables and energy efficiency, energy security issues, etc.) as well as climate-related issues (GHG emissions limitations, burden sharing between countries), POLES captures all impacts of the energy system thanks to endogenous fuel prices and national forecasts coherent within the global environment.

Key Features

  • Long-term (2050) simulation of world energy scenarios/projections and international energy markets
  • World energy supply scenarios by main producing country/region with consideration of reserve development and resource constraints (88 producing countries/regions)
  • Outlook for energy prices at international, national and sectoral level
  • Disaggregation into 15 energy demand sectors, with over 40 technologies (power generation, buildings, transport). EU Member States: Estimates of ETS and Non-ETS splits
  • Detailed national/regional energy balances and emissions, integrating primary production, primary demand, transformation & power, losses and final energy demand. 54 consuming countries + 12 regions; including all individual 28 EU Member States and EU surroundings (Norway, Iceland, Switzerland, Turkey)
  • Full power generation system (and feedback effect on other energies): 30 explicit technologies, load curve simulation with typical days, annual capacity planning and dispatch based on LCOE, centralized vs decentralized, potentials associated to renewables, CCS
  • Transformation: explicit technologies for liquids from gas, liquids from coal, biofuels, hydrogen production
  • Impacts of energy prices and tax policies on regional energy systems. National greenhouse gas emissions and abatement strategies
  • Energy trade: oil (global pool); gas (bilateral trade from 41 exporters to 14 importing markets); coal (bilateral trade from 26 exporters to 15 importing markets); import needs for solid biomass, liquid biofuels, uranium; exogenous for electricity
  • Costs of national and international GHG abatement scenarios with different regional targets/endowments and flexibility systems
  • CO2 emission Marginal Abatement Cost curves and emission trading system analyses by region and/or sector, under different market configurations and trading rules
  • Technology diffusion under conditions of sectoral demand and inter-technology competition based on relative costs and merit orders
  • Endogenous developments in energy technologies, with impacts of public and private investment in R&D and cumulative experience with “learning by doing”. Induced technological change of climate policies

References using POLES model

  1. 2014 – DECC (UK): EU 2030 Energy scenarios, dynamic simulation of ETS price and permit trading for all participating sectors across EU Member States
  2. 2013-2014 – DG Environment (European Commission): Macroeconomic impacts of shale gas extraction in the EU
  3. 2006-2013 – French Ministry of Energy & Sustainable Development (France): Reference scenarios on long-term forecasts of energy-climate-air for France; bi-annual updates. Use of the models Med-Pro and POLES for energy and emissions forecasting.
    Platform
    Synthesis note for 2011 scenarios


For further information about this model and its applications, or to define an evaluation of your needs, please contact us


 

 

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