At COP-28, under the Global Renewables and Energy Efficiency Pledge, Canada committed to double the rate of annual energy efficiency improvements by 2030 compared to the 2022 baseline. Recently, the country introduced new programs and initiatives to enhance energy efficiency at the federal level. The Canadian Department for Natural Resources (NRCan) seeks to explore recent policy and program strategies and assess long-term impacts on the energy system.
In this context, NRCan has commissioned Enerdata to update a seminal study conducted in 2018 by the International Energy Agency, emphasising the potential of energy efficiency to impact various sectors of the Canadian economy. The purpose of this new project with Enerdata is to better understand detailed energy-use historical data and projections for Canada to 2050, with a specific focus on energy efficiency and potential energy savings. This work will involve modelling energy demand and energy efficiency measures across all sectors: industry, transportation, and buildings (both residential and commercial), through a possible pathway contributing to net-zero emissions by 2050. While the primary focus is on energy efficiency, the work will also estimate the impact on GHG emission reduction alongside energy savings. Additionally, the project will estimate the cost-effectiveness of the various measures. This will enable NRCan and the Office of Energy Efficiency (OEE) to prioritise between measures based on funding availability, if necessary.
The study will use a combination of the POLES-Enerdata and EnerMED models to generate comparable estimates and pathways that align with the three scenarios outlined in the IEA’s original 2018 study. This will enable the OEE to compare the findings of both studies and conduct an impact analysis across the different scenarios. Given its long-standing expertise in energy modelling and the high-quality of its underlying databases, Enerdata is well-equipped to prepare customised energy and emissions forecasts at country level up to 2050 and beyond.
Enerdata will work closely with NRCan and the OEE to define the storylines and assumptions for the three scenarios: Current Policy, Announced Pledges, and Energy Efficiency. These scenarios will then be modelled within the POLES-Enerdata and EnerMED model environment. The results will be shared with our Canadian counterparts to potentially refine the model runs and outputs. The analysts and modelers from Enerdata's Energy Transition Indicators & Pathways department will focus on topics such as the disaggregated final energy demand across various end-uses and sectors, the structure of the electricity generation sector, all associated GHG emissions, and ad-hoc indicators including sectoral energy intensities, electrification rates, shares of renewables and fossil fuels, energy prices, scenario costs and associated investments. The study will also provide insights on physical aspects of Canada's energy transition, such as the vehicle fleet (including electric cars), the number of heat pumps in buildings, and details on steel-making processes.
In addition to providing detailed spreadsheets for historical and projected energy and emissions balances for each scenario, Enerdata will produce two reports in both English and French:
- a policy-oriented presentation summarising key findings, graphs, and messages, as well as an assessment of each policy and initiative,
- a detailed technical report including methodology, modelling approaches, and a detailed, quantified analysis of scenario results and trends.
This structured approach will facilitate a comprehensive evaluation of the different energy efficiency scenarios. This will, in turn, help to shape Canada's energy strategy and its contributions to global environmental goals.