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Development of two quantified scenarios for the World Energy Council

The World Energy Council (WEC) is a century-old independent community of energy leaders and experts. The WEC organises the World Energy Congress gathering several hundreds of executives, ministers, and over 7,000 international energy stakeholders. This event aims to facilitate insightful discussions by presenting thought-provoking prospective energy scenarios.

While the previous WEC scenarios date back to 2019, the current global landscape has undergone significant transformation, marked by uncertainties arising from geopolitical tensions and conflicts. Therefore, a first phase in this project was to organise regional consultations and expert workshops to support the WEC in crafting new narratives. New patterns and fractures have emerged in their updated scenarios.

For this task, the WEC commissioned Enerdata to build an updated quantified scenario set, leveraging our recognised expertise and our in-house Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems (POLES) model. This model offers a comprehensive global perspective, incorporating highly detailed sectoral and geographical representations.

During the scenario definition phase, Enerdata meticulously tailored assumptions to align with the WEC storylines on a region-by-region basis. Consequently, two scenarios emerged: “Jazz Clubs” represents a collaborative and dynamic approach through innovation with a focus on long-term visions, while “Hard Rocks” focuses on shorter-term policies and investments, reflecting divergent perspectives based on nation-centric interests.

Enerdata delivers these quantitative scenario results to the WEC scenario team and will co-present them at the 26th World Energy Congress in Rotterdam, scheduled for April 22-25, 2024.