According to the US Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy Outlook 2019 (AEO2019), US tight oil production should continue to increase through 2030, until reaching more than 10 mb/d in the early 2030s, thanks to improve drilling efficiency and reduced costs, and would raise total US oil production to 12 mb/d in 2050. Tight oil production became the largest form of oil production in 2015 and accounted for 61% of total US production in 2018 with 6.5 mb/d in 2018. Three major tight oil plays in the Permian Basin, namely Spraberry, Bone Spring, and Wolfcamp, accounted for 41% of US tight oil production in 2018 and should account for half of cumulative tight oil production until 2050, followed by the Bakken plays (19%) and Eagle Ford plays (17%).
In the High Oil and Gas Resource and Technology case, tight oil production could increase through the mid-2040s, as higher productivity would cut development and production costs and boost resource development, before slowly declining until 2050. Total oil production would then reach 19 mb/d (compared to 12 mb/d in the reference case). In the Low Oil and Gas Resource and Technology case (less optimistic resource and technology assumptions), tight oil production would still increase until the early 2020s before declining through 2050. Total US oil production would then decrease to 8 mb/d in 2050.