According to the Annual Energy Outlook 2020 released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the United States is expected to remain a net energy exporter through 2050, due to continued increases in energy efficiency slowing down the growth in domestic energy consumption (+0.3%/year until 2050) and to a faster increase in domestic oil and gas production (+1.9%/year). In line with the steady development of tight oil and shale gas resources, US crude oil production should continue to set annual records through the mid-2020s, and average 14 mb/d through the mid-2040s, before declining until 2050. Gas production is expected to surge, reaching 45 tcf (over 1,270 bcm) in 2050. This strong increase in domestic supply outpacing domestic consumption of crude oil, oil products and gas, energy exports will continue to rise.
In the power sector (the largest energy consuming sector), the share of renewables in the US power mix is expected to double from 19% in 2019 to 38% in 2050, thanks to a strong increase in solar power generation, whose share in total renewable generation should triple from 14% in 2019 to 46% in 2050. Renewable generation should surpass nuclear and coal-fired generation as early as in 2021 and even surpass gas-fired generation in 2045. The share of gas should remain stable until 2050 (36%), while that of nuclear and coal will decline to 12% and 13%.
Energy-related CO2 emissions are expected to decline until 2030, as a result of coal-fired power plants retiring and of rising renewable power generation. They should slightly increase after 2030, due to increases in energy demand in the transportation and industrial sectors.