According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the United States will overtake Russia as the world's largest oil producer by 2019 at the latest, driven by the shale revolution. In 2017, the US crude oil output rose above 10 mb/d for the first time since the 1970s, even overtaking Saudi Arabia. It is expected to reach the 11 mb/d milestone by late 2018 and no decline is forecast in the next four to five years, at least not before 2020. US crude oil are growing, including to the Asian market, reducing the market shares of OPEC and Russia.
The Middle-East is still forecast to remain the largest crude oil exporting region but the availability of additional crude oil production for export will be limited by the rising domestic consumption. The development of new refining capacities in the Middle East (around 4 mb/d) should make the region the largest product exporter in the world. Most of the crude oil exports will be supplying Asia. By 2040, Asia's combined crude oil import needs are expected to rise by 9 mb/d to around 30 mb/d.
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