According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), most of gas production growth in the United States is expected to come from shale gas and tight oil plays through 2040.
In 2015, hydraulically fractured wells (unconventional gas production based on shale gas) accounted for 2/3 of US gas production, with gas production from shale gas and tight oil plays making up about half of the US total dry gas production in 2015. In the Annual Energy Outlook 2016 Reference case, production from shale gas and tight oil plays is projected to double to 29 Tcf (819 bcm) in 2040, making up 69% of the 2040 total dry gas production.
Tight gas resources should rise by 31%, from 5 Tcf (around 141 bcm) to 6.6 Tcf (186 bcm) in 2040 (stable share in gas production); offshore gas production should remain stable at 1.4 Tcf (39.5 bcm) until 2020 and should decrease afterwards to 1.2 Tcf (34 bcm) reflecting declines from legacy offshore fields. As production from new discoveries after 2027 offsets the decline in legacy fields, offshore natural gas production increases to 1.7 Tcf (48 bcm) in 2040.
As domestic production will rise significantly and surpass domestic consumption, the United States should become a net exporter of gas as of 2018.