According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), US oil demand is expected to decrease by 2.2 mb/d (-11%) to 18.3 mb/d in 2020, and to rebound by 1.5 mb/d in 2021. Meanwhile, crude oil production will drop by 540,000 bbl/d (-4.4%) to 11.7 mb/d; it should slump again by 790,00 bbl/d to 10.9 mb/d in 2021.
Gas production would fall from 92.2 bcf/d (952 bcm/year) in 2019 to 89.8 bcf/d (928 bcm/year) in 2020 (-2.6%) and to 84.9 bcf/d (877 bcm/year) in 2021 (-5.9%), while demand is expected to drop by 3.9% from 85 bcf/d (878 bcm/year) in 2019 to 81.7 bcf/d (844 bcm/year) in 2020 and by 3% to 79.2 bcf/d (877 bcm/year) in 2021.
In addition, the share of gas-fired power generation will increase from 37% in 2019 to 39% in 2020 before slipping to 36% in 2021. Coal’s share will drop from 24% in 2019 to 19% in 2020 before growing to 21% in 2021. Nuclear will expand from 20% in 2019 to 21% in 2020 and 2021, while the share of renewables will grow from 17% in 2019 to 20% in 2020 and 22% in 2021. Consequently, energy-related CO2 emissions are expected to decline by 11% in 2020.