According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the United States is expected to become a net importer of petroleum (i.e. crude oil, refined oil products, and other liquids) on an annual basis in both 2021 and 2022 because of declines in domestic crude oil production and corresponding increases in crude oil imports. In 2020, the US crude oil output decreased by 0.9 mb/d (-8%) to 11.3 mb/d because of well curtailment and a reduced drilling activity due to low crude oil prices.
The US administration forecasts that net imports of crude oil will increase from the 2020 average of 2.7 mb/d to 3.7 mb/d in 2021 and 4.4 mb/d in 2022. In addition, net petroleum product exports, which reached 3.4 mb/d in 2020, should average 3.5 million b/d in 2021 and 3.9 million b/d in 2022 as global demand for petroleum products continues to increase. Consequently, the country may import more crude oil to fill the widening gap between refinery inputs of crude oil and domestic crude oil production in 2021 and 2022.