According to the US Energy Information Administration's latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), solar is expected to become the leading source of growth in the US electric power sector, increasing its share of total generation from 4% in 2023 to 5.6% in 2024 and 7% in 2025. Considering that almost 80 GW of solar power will come online over the next two years, the U.S. solar generating capacity is expected to grow by 84%. Rising solar generation - and to a lesser extent higher wind generation - should cut coal-fired power generation by 9% in 2024 and 10% in 2025 and another 12 GW of coal-fired power capacity should retire through 2025. Gas-fired power generation should remain stable in 2024 and 2025.
The STEO expects US crude oil and natural gas production growth to slow, reaching 13.2 mb/d in 2024 and over 13.4 mb/d by 2025. Gasoline prices are expected to decline, while crude oil price will remain relatively unchanged falling to US$79/bbl by 2025. Coal production is expected to drop by 26% by 2025 (430 Mt) and natural gas production should continue to grow by 1-2% through 2025.
At the end of 2022, the United States had an installed capacity of 1,187 GW, of which gas dominated with a 42%, followed by coal (17%), wind (12%), hydro and solar (9% each), and nuclear (8%). In total, renewables account for 31% of the total capacity.
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