US energy-related CO₂ emissions should remain stable through 2050

According to the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA), CO₂ emissions from the domestic energy consumption are predicted to remain near current levels through 2050 and reach a total of 5,019 Mt by then, i.e. only 4% below their 2018 value. Emissions related to coal and oil consumption are forecast to decrease but will be offset by rising emissions from gas consumption.



Energy-related CO₂ emissions generally follow the same pattern as energy consumption trends and are mostly associated with the consumption of oil products such as jet fuel, distillate and motor gasoline. As of 2018, the transportation sector consumption accounted for 78% of the total domestic CO₂ emissions from oil consumption and more than 33% of all US energy-related CO₂ emissions. Oil-related emissions are expected to decline until 2035, before increasing again through 2050.



Coal-related CO₂ emissions (around 90% from the power sector and 10% from industry in 2018) should continue to fall until 2030 - around 1/3 of the existing coal-fired power capacity will retire within the next decade - but emissions would stagnate until 2050, as the remaining coal-fired fleet would be used more frequently.



The substitution of coal-fired power plants by gas-fired power plants in recent years led gas-related emissions to surpass coal emissions as of 2015 and gas became the largest fuel used for power generation in 2016, overtaking coal. Consequently, gas-related CO₂ emissions will continue to increase, in line with the use of gas in the US power sector. Gas consumption from industry (chemical branch, CHP and LNG production) should also increase, as well as residential and commercial consumption.