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US emissions on course to be 35-43% below 2005 levels in 2030

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) forecasts that, in light of the implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), economy-wide CO2 emissions in the US, including electricity generation and use, are on course to be 35% to 43% below 2005 levels in 2030. Emissions reduction from the power sector would be 49% to 83% below 2005 levels in 2030.

The US’ CO2 emissions are forecast to decline to a median of 3,300 MtCO2/year in 2035, below the 4,100 Mt/year projected without the IRA. The EPA report analysed the impacts an estimated US$391bn of support under the IRA for climate and clean energy programs and incentives through 2031. The IRA was implemented by the US administration in August 2022 and plans to provide billions of dollars in tax credits to help consumers buy electric vehicles and companies produce renewable energy.

The EPA forecast is still below the country’s objectives, as in its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), the US has set a target of reducing emissions by 50%–52% below 2005 levels by 2030 (excluding LULUCF). The US also wants to achieve net zero emissions by 2050 at the latest.