According to the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), electricity consumption in the United States is expected to decline by 1% to 4,014 TWh in 2023 after a 3% growth in 2022 (4,044 TWh) and to recover by 1% in 2024. Milder temperatures are expected in the summer 2023, resulting in a lower residential demand (lower temperatures would raise residential sales by 5% in 2024). US power generation would follow domestic electricity demand, declining in 2023 and rising in 2024; most of the increase in power generation would come from renewables (mainly solar PV and wind), whose share in the US power mix should rise from 21% in 2022 to 24% in 2023 and 26% in 2024. On the contrary, the shares of gas and coal should decline, from 39% for gas in 2022 to 38% in 2023 and 37% in 2024 and from 20% for coal in 2022 to 18% in 2023 and 17% in 2024. The share of nuclear should remain stable at around 19% over the 2022-2024 period. Where installed power capacities are concerned, new installations should consist of utility-scale solar PV plants (+32 GW in 2023 and +32 GW in 2024), small-scale solar PV plants (+9 GW in 2023 and +12 GW in 2024), wind power (+6 GW in both 2023 and 2024) and batteries (+10 GW in 2023 and +9 GW in 2024).
The US EIA also forecasts the US coal production to decline by 11% to around 530 Mt in 2023 and by 6% to 500 Mt in 2024, as 10 GW of coal-fired power plants should be retired in 2023 and another 4 GW in 2024. The US gas production should continue to increase, in both the Permian region in West Texas and Southeast New Mexico and in the Haynesville region in Louisiana and East Texas. In addition, crude oil production should continue to increase in the Lower 48 states (mostly in the Permian region) in 2023 and 2024.