According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), electricity consumption is expected to grow slowly (+0.7%/year) between 2015 and 2040, due to a decline in electricity intensity.
Indeed, electricity consumption from the residential sector (38% of total electricity sales in 2015) is projected to increase by only 0.3%/year between 2015 and 2040 (while the number of households will hike by 0.8%/year), owing to a 11.3% decline in the average electricity consumption by households. Energy efficiency standards for building construction and for end-use (lighting, space cooling, heating and water heating) will contribute to the decrease in electricity intensity for households.
Where commercial consumers are concerned, their electricity consumption is expected to increase by 0.8%/year between 2015 and 2040, while the commercial sector unit electricity consumption (electricity sales per square foot of floorspace) will decline by 0.3%/year (1.1% increase in commercial sector floorspace); again, federal energy efficiency standards, as well as technological improvements, will contribute to the decline in electricity intensity.
Electricity consumption from industrial consumers will rise by 1.1%/year but higher industrial sales will reduce the industrial sector electricity intensity (electricity sales per dollar of industrial shipment) by 0.8%/year from 2015 to 2040. This improvement in the energy efficiency of the industrial sector is related to the adoption of more energy-efficient technologies and structural changes in the economy toward less electricity-intensive industries.