The US EIA DOE released its International Energy Outlook 2010 with an assessment of the outlook for international energy markets. This latest edition includes projections of world energy demand by region and primary energy source through 2035; electricity generation by fuel type; and energy-related carbon dioxide emissions. The edition presents a Reference Case as well as four other cases depending on hypothesis about economic growth and oil price.
Main report highlights are:
- In the Reference Case, world energy consumption is notably expected to increase by 49% between 2007 and 2035, driven by a rapid economic growth in developing countries. China and India are among the nations least impacted by the global recession, and they will continue to lead the world's economic and energy demand growth into the future: they account for 30% of world energy use in 2035 according to the Reference Case. Non-OECD energy use increases by 2.2%/year; in the OECD countries energy use grows by only 0.5%/year;
- In 2009, oil prices again trended upward and this trend continues in the Reference case, with prices rising to $108 per barrel by 2020 (in real 2008 dollars) and $133 per barrel by 2035.
- Petroleum and other liquid fuels remain the largest energy source worldwide through 2035, though projected higher oil prices erode their share of total energy use from 35% in 2007 to 30% in 2035.
- World natural gas consumption increases 1.3%/year. Tight gas, shale gas, and coalbed methane supplies increase substantially in the IEO2010 Reference case—especially from the United States, but also from Canada and China.
- In the absence of additional national policies and/or binding international agreements that would limit or reduce greenhouse gas emissions, world coal consumption is projected to increase at an average rate of 1.6%/year. China alone accounts for 78% of the total net increase in world coal use from 2007 to 2035.
- World net electricity generation increases by 87%. Renewables are the fastest growing source of new electricity generation, increasing by 3.0%/year in the Reference case; followed by coal-fired generation, which increases by 2.3%/year.
- In the Reference case, world industrial energy consumption grows 66% by 2035. The non-OECD economies account for about 95 percent of the world increase in industrial sector energy consumption in the Reference case.
- In the Reference case, energy-related CO2 emissions rise by 43%. Much of the increase in carbon dioxide emissions is projected to occur among the developing nations of the world, especially in Asia.
An summary of the main IEO 2010 highlights is available at: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html