The DOE EIA issued its Annual Energy Outlook which includes a projection and analysis of US energy supply, demand, and prices through 2035. The edition presents a reference case as well as four other cases depending on hypothesis about High/Low economic growth and high/low oil price.
Main report highlights are:
- Total U.S. primary energy consumption increases by 14% from 2008 to 2035 in the Reference case, representing an average growth rate of 0.5%/year.
- From 2008 to 2035, energy intensity falls by 1.9%/year in the Reference case, as the most rapid growth in the U.S. economy occurs in the less energy-intensive service sectors, and as the efficiency of energy-consuming appliances, vehicles, and structures improves.
- EIA projects the strongest growth in fuel use for the renewable fuels used to generate electricity and to produce liquid fuels for the transportation sector.
- Although fossil fuels continue to provide most of the energy consumed in the United States over the next 25 years in the Reference case, their share of overall energy use falls from 84% in 2008 to 78% in 2035.
- Although U.S. consumption of liquid fuels continues to grow over the next 25 years in the Reference case, reliance on petroleum imports decreases over 2035.
- In the Reference case, total domestic natural gas production grows, driven by shale gas offsetting declines in other sources.
- In the Reference case, which assumes no explicit regulations to limit GHG emissions beyond the recent vehicle GHG standards, CO2 emissions from energy grow on average by 0.3%/year from 2008 to 2035, or a total of about 9%.
The documents are available at : http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html