The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has published its latest forecast on the oil market, expecting crude oil prices to fall in the coming years due to increasing global oil production and a slower demand growth. The EIA’s forecast considers that Brent crude oil prices will fall from US$81/bbl to US$74/bbl in 2025, and US$66/bbl in 2026 because of growing production in countries outside OPEC+, with the leading producers (United States, Canada, Guyana, and Brazil) being expected to increase their production by an additional 1 mbl/d in 2025 and 0.9 mbl/d in 2026 (1.1 mbl/d in 2024).
However, uncertainty on both oil demand and supply sides may significantly affect oil prices. Among these factors are the capacity of the leading producers to sustain their high levels of growth in the coming years, the potential of a change in production policies by the OPEC+ at the prospect of ceding further market share, the impact of US’ sanctions on the Russian oil exports, and possible changes in economic growth rates and other systemic changes.
Despite the uncertainties, the US crude oil production is anticipated to reach an all-time high (13.5 mb/d in 2025 and 13.6 mb/d in 2026), while drilling activity and investment in US production of crude oil and other liquids is expected to experience a slowdown due to lower market prices.