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US EIA expects solar to lead power generation growth in 2024 and 2025

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has published its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) in which it forecasts that solar PV will lead the country’s electricity generation growth over the next two years, estimating the planned addition of new solar PV capacity to increase by 36 GW in 2024 and by 43 GW in 2025. With this, the share of solar in total power generation is expected to grow from 4% in 2023 to 6% in 2024 and 7% in 2025, while coal-fired power generation is expected to decline by 9% in 2024 and 10% in 2025 due to a combination of higher costs compared with renewables and the retirement of 12 GW of coal-fired capacity. On the other hand, gas-fired power generation is expected to remain stable during the next two years. Crude oil is estimated to reach new record levels producing 13.2 mb/d in 2024 and more than 13.4 mb/d in 2025. 

At the end of 2022, the US had a total installed capacity of 1,187 GW, of which solar accounted for 112 GW (9%). Most of the country’s capacity is dominated by gas (42%), followed by coal (17%), wind (12%) and hydro (9%). Nearly two thirds of the US production is thermal (61%), with 38% from gas and 20% from coal. The share of wind and solar in the power mix has increased from 2% in 2010 to 14% in 2022 (of which 10% was wind).

Global Energy Trends, 2023 edition

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Global Energy Trends - 2023 Edition

An In-depth analysis of consolidated 2022 energy and climate statistics, of the Global Stocktake and of the natural gas crisis.