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Global Energy Trends

28 Jun 2022

Consolidated 2021 energy climate statistics, and projections to 2050

 

The post-pandemic economic recovery implied higher energy consumption and energy-related CO2 emissions in 2021, exceeding the 2019 levels. From now, what will be the aftermath of the major game changer that occurred recently?

Our Global Energy Trends publication provides you with an in-depth analysis performed by our experts, leveraging our unique databases.

  • Globally, economic activity and energy demand in 2021 exceed 2019 levels (respectively +1.3% and +0.4%), and the CO2 emissions rebound in 2021 (+5.9%) more than offsets the 2020 drop (-4.9%)
  • In Europe, the energy inflation is reaching unprecedented levels in 2022, with the Ukrainian war adding pressure to already tight markets. In the short-term, oil price is expected to decrease, while European gas prices are not.
  • Nevertheless, there is room for strong reductions in gas final consumption.

 

 

 

2020 VS 2021 comparison of key energy figures for G20 countries

 

G20 countries account for 80% of global energy consumption

Figures in orange: data for 2021

Figures in blue: data for 2020

 

 

+5.9%

-3.2%

   

2021 economic recovery

At purchasing power parity

2019-21: +1.3%
2009-19: +3.6%

 

+5%

-4%

11.4 Gtoe

Rebound in energy consumption

   

 

2019-21: +0.4%
2009-19: +1.7%

 

+5.9%

-4.9%

27.5 GtCO2

Rebound in CO2 emissions* with 2021 level > 2019 level

 

2019-21: +0.3%
2009-19: +1.3%

 

*CO2 emissions from energy combustion (> 80% of CO2 emissions)

 

Key Takeaways:

  • The effects of health measures and the economic crisis were felt mainly in the sectors of services, transport, and carbon-intensive electricity generation.
  • New RES capacities (wind, solar PV) have been growing despite the crisis.
  • By the end of 2021, energy efficiency and decarbonisation indicators returned to previous trends, far from sufficient to meet the Paris Agreement targets.

 

Energy-related CO2 emissions (%/year) in G20 countries

Energy related co2 emission in G20 countries (%/year)

Source: Enerdata

  • The 2021 CO2 emissions level is 1% below their 2019 level, taking the opposite direction from the 2°C path to reach the Paris Agreement targets.
  • Economic rebound after Covid-19 led to a strong demand in raw materials and energy.

 

Projection of European gas price and brent price from forward price

Projection of European gas price and brent price from forward price

Source: Enerdata; Energymarketprice, as of 14th of June 2022

  • The Ukrainian crisis adds pressure to already tight markets
  • The EU has trapped itself into a natural gas dependency on imports, especially from Russia
  • Addressing energy consumption with efficiency and sufficiency measures is a key option for the EU, which has not been significantly leveraged so far

 

Global Energy & CO2 Data

Global Energy & CO2 Data

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