Are we on track to hit the 2030 goals for renewables and energy efficiency?
What were the contingent impacts of China’s economic rebound after its 2022 recession? How has the Ukraine war affected global markets since 2023?
Progress made towards COP28 goals: are renewables expanding at a sufficient rate, and is efficiency improving at the required pace? And the long-term challenge: can renewable capacity truly be tripled, and energy efficiency be doubled by 2030? At what costs?
2022 vs 2023 comparison of key energy and climate figures for G20 countries
G20 countries account for 80% of global energy consumption
Figures in orange: data for 2023
Figures in blue: data for 2022
Key Takeaways:
In 2023, economic growth returned to its average trend from 2010 to 2019, but energy consumption increased more rapidly than this historical trend. The G20 failed to decouple energy consumption from economic growth and did not reduce energy intensity sufficiently to align with the 2°C pathway. These trends vary across countries based on their GDP, the structure of their economy and changes in energy mix.
Despite increased wind and solar power generation, the share of renewables in energy and power mixes grew only slightly and consequently the CO2 emissions rose by 1.7%. The carbon factor reduction pace remains insufficient to meet the 2°C target.
Carbon factor evolution in G20 countries
Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data
Energy consumption grew at a faster rate compared to the 2010-2019 period, with significant variations observed between OECD and non-OECD countries The proportion of fossil fuels in the G20 energy mix remained unchanged, as coal and oil consumption continued to increase, spurred by non-OECD countries such as China and India alongside recovery in the transport sector. Owing to still high prices, lower-CO2 emitting natural gas consumption increased marginally.
Trends in Oil Consumption in G20 Countries (%/year)
Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data
The global renewables and energy efficiency pledge
Renewable power generation is gaining momentum. New renewable installations reached record high levels, thanks to China, which installed as much renewable capacity in 2023 as the entire world did in 2022. Overall, wind and solar generation rose rapidly (+10% and +25%, respectively) to reach 15% of the G20 power mix.
China, leader in the development of renewable power capacities
Source: Enerdata, Global Energy & CO2 Data
Key Takeaways:
- The 2030 climate objectives set forth by COP28 align with the Paris Agreement goal to maintain the global temperature increase well below 2°C, as illustrated by EnerGreen.
- However, the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are not sufficient to reach the 2030 climate objectives.
- Renewables and energy efficiency are not the only levers to contribute to global climate ambition in EnerGreen, and the role of electrification and sufficiency should not be understated. Sufficiency also helps to limit reliance on new technologies with uncertainties regarding maturity.
Global Renewable Power Capacity
Source : Enerdata, EnerFuture
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