According to the Annual Energy Outlook 2016 (AEO2016) released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), total production of crude oil and other liquids in the United States should increase by nearly 26% between 2015 (14.8 mb/d) and 2040, when they would reach 18.6 mb/d. Production should decline until 2017-2018 and increase rapidly until the early 2020s, when it should start to grow at a slower pace.
Production will depend on higher or lower global crude oil prices: in the reference case (US$104/bbl in 2040), the US will remain a net importer, despite the rising domestic supply (average consumption of 20 mb/d compared to a production of 18.6 mb/d). In the high oil price case (US$207/bbl), the United States becomes a net exporter of petroleum and other liquid fuels by 2022, while the country will remain a net importer (net imports of around 5 mb/d in 2040) in the low price case (US$49/bbl). Production will also depend on technology and resources, with production 50% higher or lower than in the reference case.
In the reference scenario, tight oil production is expected to decline through 2017 to 4.2 mb/d before increasing to 7.1 mb/d in 2040 (higher oil prices and better knowledge of producing reservoirs). Production of natural gas plant liquids will increase from 3.3 mb/d in 2015 to 4.8 mb/d in 2025, and then more slowly through 2040, reaching 5 mb/d as growth in wet natural gas production slows.
Production in Alaska will continue to decline through 2040, dropping to less than 0.2 mb/d in 2040.