According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), energy-related CO2 emissions in the United States should reach a 25-year low in 2017, thanks to the current trend of coal-to-gas substitution in the power sector. They should fall to 5,134 Mt in 2017, their lowest level since 1992.
However, a colder winter, rising gas prices (from US$2.51/MMbtu in 2016 to an expected US$3.16/MMbtu in 2017 and to US$3.41/MMbtu in 2018) and a higher economic growth should push CO2 emissions from the power sector, transports, households and business upward in 2018 (+2.2%): energy-related CO2 emissions should then rise to 5,248 Mt in 2018.
Energy-related CO2 emissions in the United States have been falling for several years, as less and less CO2-intensive coal is burned in the power sector. Coal was overtaken by gas as the primary fuel for power plants in 2016, due to abundant unconventional gas resources that boosted domestic production and cut prices. Coal-fired power plants are also being progressively shut down to meet environmental standards and to be replaced with more efficient gas-fired CCGT units. The US EIA expects US coal consumption to remain stable, from 730 Mt in 2016 to 731 Mt in 2017; it should rise to 743 Mt in 2018.