According to the Future Energy Scenarios (FES) unveiled by the British gas transmission network operator National Grid, the United Kingdom could have to import up to 93% of its gas consumption by 2040, in case of low economic growth and low investments in domestic gas production.
Gas imports would rise to 75% of supply under the business as usual ("No progression") scenario and to 90% under the "Gone Green" scenario (policies and investments oriented to long-term environmental goals, no shale gas production). Only one of the four scenarios, namely the "Consumer Power" scenario (policies focusing on unconventional gas extraction and improved domestic supply), foresees a reduction in gas imports by 2040, from around 50% currently to 30%. Under this scenario, shale gas production would start in 2021 and reach 32 bcm/year by 2031.
Where the power sector is concerned, all scenarios expect the government to comply with its commitments to stop all coal-fired power plants by 2025 (unless they are equipped with CCS). The Gone Green scenario would be the only one allowing the United Kingdom to meet its 80% emission target reduction between 1990 and 2050; under other scenarios, the country will fail to cover 15% of its energy demand with renewables by 2020.
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