The French Energy Regulation Commission (CRE) has received total request for 146 TWh of nuclear power generation under the ARENH mechanism requests from alternative suppliers for 2021, which is 0.5% less than in 2020. As demand was higher than the 100 TWh cap, the regulator decided that the 81 electricity suppliers that made an order will each receive around 68% of the amount they requested. The ARENH law (Accès régulé à l'électricité nucléaire historique, 2010) obliges EDF to sell part of its nuclear generation (up to 100 TWh/year, i.e. around a quarter of its production) to alternative suppliers on the wholesale market at a regulated price (“ARENH price”), which has been set by the CRE at €42/MWh since 2012.
In October 2020, EDF revised upward its nuclear generation forecast for 2020 in France, to around 325-335 TWh (+3 to 6%). The output estimate for 2021 and 2022 remains unchanged, between 330 TWh and 360 TWh in 2021 and 2022. In 2019, nuclear power generation in France dipped by 3.5% to 379.5 TWh, missing its 384-388 TWh target. In January 2020, the group announced a target of up to 395 TWh for the year but it soon revised it to 375-390 TWh (corresponding to a 20% to 23% decrease) in a context of pandemic-related crisis. In April 2020, EDF cut again its 2020 nuclear output estimate in France by 20% to 300 TWh, before forecasting a higher nuclear production in July 2020 (around 315-325 TWh, i.e. +5 to 8%).
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