South Africa aims to reduce GHG emissions to 320-380 MtCO₂eq by 2035

South Africa has updated its Second Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) for the 2031 to 2035 period, announcing its aim to reduce its emissions to a range of 320-380 MtCO₂eq by 2035 (UNFCCC, 24/10/2025). Total GHG emissions excluding LULUCF are currently estimated at more than 560 MtCO₂eq in 2023 (567 MtCO₂eq including LULUCF) (Enerdata’s Global Energy & CO₂ Data), which would correspond to a 33-44% decrease by 2035.

• The mitigation target covers all sectors but excludes emissions from natural disturbances in the land sector, estimated to “reduce South Africa’s total emissions estimate in the target year by 5-30 Mt CO₂-eq.”
• It keeps its long-term decarbonization strategy to reach net zero CO₂ emissions by 2050. 

The country also proposes three equity-based frameworks (the Climate Equity Reference Calculator, Climate Equity Monitor, and Climate Action Tracker) to apply when estimating its contribution to limiting global warming to 1.5°C or 2°C, to provide fairness in the estimation methods given to the unequal burdens that poor communities must face with climate change. 

South Africa's updated IRP 2025 estimates that "a total of 44 GW of new renewable energy capacity will be installed by 2035, thus contributing to green industrialization and helping to achieve the mitigation targets in this second NDC".