Shell has updated its strategy through 2020, expecting US$4.5bn from BG synergies in 2018 (+30% compared to its initial US$3.5bn target).
The group will bet on its cash engines (conventional oil and gas, integrated gas, oil sands mining, and oil products); the pace of new investments in integrated gas, which has reached critical mass following the BG acquisition and planned growth in LNG, particularly in Australia, will slow down. Shell will give priority to growth projects in deep water and chemicals: the group expects deep-water production (mainly in Brazil and in the Gulf of Mexico) to double, from around 450 kboe/d in 2015 to 900 kboe/d in 2020. Shell will also seek to seize future opportunities in shales (restructured portfolio focused on North America and Argentina) and in new energies (low-carbon biofuels, hydrogen, solar, wind and smart customer solutions) to complement the group's gas strategy.
Capital investment will be in the range of US$25-30bn/year to 2020; investment for 2016 is expected to be US$29bn, excluding the purchase price of BG. Asset sales, as planned, are expected to be US$30bn for 2016-2018, including US$6-8bn in 2016.