The Russian Ministry of Economic Development has lowered its forecasts for the country's crude oil export prices over the 2024-2027 period to US$65/bbl. The forecasts were cut from previous estimates of US$71.3/bbl for 2024, US$70.1/bbl for 2025 and US$70/bbl for 2026.
As for Brent oil, prices are expected to be US$79.5/bbl in 2024, US$75.1/bbl in 2025, US$72/bbl in 2026 and US$71.2/bbl in 2027. Previously, the ministry expected Brent oil prices to average US$85/bbl in 2024 and US$76/bbl in 2026.
Russian oil is currently under sanctions from Western countries following the country’s invasion of Ukraine, which includes restrictions on Russian oil purchases as well as a price cap of US$60/bbl. Russia is the world’s second largest oil exporter behind Saudi Arabia, with crude oil exports reaching 252 Mt (5.15 mbl/d) in 2022.