France has entered a period of electricity overcapacity due to lower industrial consumption and rising renewable and nuclear output, according to French grid operator RTE in its new 2025-2035 Forecast Assessment (Bilan prévisionnel 2025, 09/12/2025).
RTE’s 2025 outlook updates projections for the power system through 2035 and confirms that France is facing structural overcapacity likely to last until 2027–2028. Electricity demand remains 30 TWh below pre-COVID levels because of efficiency gains, energy-saving efforts, and weak economic conditions.
To absorb the surplus, decarbonisation and electrification projects, such as the rollout of electric vehicles and hydrogen production, must accelerate, which will require EU-level action, RTE says. The report outlines two possible trajectories:
- A “rapid decarbonisation” path, where widespread electrification boosts annual demand to around 510 TWh in 2030 and to 580 TWh by 2035.
- A “slow decarbonisation” path, where demand rises more modestly to 470 TWh by 2030 and 505 TWh in 2035, requiring a temporary slowdown in renewable deployment to keep the system balanced.
If electrification fails to scale up, RTE warns that renewable expansion may need to be temporarily adjusted, though such measures must remain limited and proportionate to avoid harming France’s renewable energy industries.