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OPEC and Russia likely to maintain oil output level despite price fall

OPEC members have met to discuss crude oil production levels as oil prices have plummeted and reached a four-year low since September 2010, at US$75.75/bbl for Brent. The bulk of OPEC countries need a US$100/bbl level to balance their government budgets, with only Qatar (US$77/bbl), Kuwait (US$78/bbl) and the United Arab Emirates (US$81/bbl) reaching balance at US$80/bbl. These three countries have agreed with Saudi Arabia to maintain their crude oil production at current level. Russia, which is not an OPEC member and needs US$100/bbl to balance its budget, will also keep its output steady in 2015 after failing to reach an agreement with Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Mexico. Indeed, large producing Gulf countries such as Saudi Arabia see no interest in cutting oil production without similar action by non-OPEC competitors (mainly North American shale oil producers, responsible for the production boom and falling prices); in the longer term, low prices might even make future shale oil projects in North America uncompetitive due to their high production costs, to the advantage of OPEC producers.



OPEC and Russia likely to maintain oil output level despite price fall

Source: BBC/IMF