NPD forecast Norway's oil output to rise by 44% between 2019 and 2024

13 Jan 2020

According to forecasts from the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD), Norway’s crude oil production will rise from 1.41 mb/d in 2019 to 1.76 mb/d in 2020 and 2.02 mbd/d in 2024 (+44%), as major oilfields Sverdrup and Castberg will progressively enter production. Total liquids production should increase by more than 34% between 2019 (1.74 mboe/d) and 2024 (2.33 mb/d). Norway’s natural gas output is expected to increase by 3% in 2020 and by 5% over the 2019-2024 period.

Despite a 4% increase in exploration activity in 2019 with 57 wells spudded during the year, the NPD anticipates a decline in 2020, with only 50 wells. In 2019, the majority of exploration activity was concentrated in North Sea (65%), followed by Norwegian Sea (26%) and Barents Sea (9%). Companies made a total of 17 discoveries in 2019, including 10 in the North Sea, 6 in the Norwegian Sea and 1 in the Barents Sea.

In October 2019, Equinor started production from the Johan Sverdrup field, a giant oil and gas field in the Norwegian part of the North Sea with recoverable reserves estimated at 2.7 Gboe. Oil production is anticipated to ramp up to 440,000 bbl/d in the summer of 2020 and should rise further to 660,000 bbl/d once the second phase comes on stream in late 2022. 

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