Nigeria's updated NDC targets 47% conditional cut in GHG emissions by 2030

Nigeria has unveiled a new update of its First Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), setting an unconditional greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction target of 20% and a conditional reduction target up to 47% of the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario by 2030. Under its BAU scenario, Nigeria estimates GHG emissions at around 453 MtCO_2eq by 2030; the 47% cut would limit GHG emissions to 244 MtCO₂eq. The new NDC updates the base year for the GHG assessment from 2010 to 2018. Between 2010 and 2018, Nigeria’s GHG emissions increased by 40% to reach 347 MtCO₂eq. The baseline projection has been updated too, estimating GHG emissions at 453 MtCO_2eq by 2030, i.e. around half the 2015 estimates and a 31% increase in total GHG emissions between 2018 and 2030 (+2.6%/year).

In in its first NDC (2017), the country pledged to cut its GHG emissions by 2030 below a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario by 20% using its domestic resources (unconditional target) or by 45% with international support (conditional target). In May 2021, the country submitted an interim updated First NDC that included similar targets.

In 2018, the energy sector accounted for 60% of total GHG emissions, including 22% of fugitive emissions from oil and gas. Agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) is the second largest contributor to total GHG emissions, contributing one quarter of national total GHG emissions in 2018.