The government of Japan has approved the Seventh Strategic Energy Plan, which bets on nuclear power and renewables to ensure power supply security and achieve net zero by 2050. According to the Plan, the share of nuclear in the power mix should rise from 8.5% in fiscal year (FY) 2023 to about 20% in 2040 (stable from the FY 2030 target of 20-22%). The share of renewables in the power mix should almost double, from 22.9% in FY 2023 to 40-50% in 2040. Consequently, the share of thermal power should sharply decline, from nearly 69% in FY 2023 to about 30-40% in 2040.
Prior to the 2011 Fukushima disaster, Japan's 54 reactors accounted for around 1/4 of the power mix. To ensure the 20% share of nuclear by 2040, most of existing reactors and those under construction would have to be operational; the government aims to ease requirements for replacing old reactors with new ones to meet the rising electricity demand. In June 2023, the Japanese parliament had enacted a law to allow nuclear reactors to operate beyond their current limit of 60 years, in order to help cut greenhouse gas emissions and ensure a sufficient energy supply for the country.
The Seventh Strategic Energy Plan aims to align with Japan's updated NDC target to cut its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from fiscal year 2013 levels (1.4 GtCO2eq), by 60% in fiscal year 2035 to 570 MtCO2eq and by 73% to 380 MtCO2eq in fiscal year 2040.
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