Japan's updated NDC plans a 73% cut in GHG emissions by 2040 from 2013 levels

Japan has updated its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), committing to cut its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 60% in fiscal year 2035 and by 73% in fiscal year 2040, compared to its fiscal year 2013 levels (1.4 GtCO₂eq). This would correspond to reaching an emission level of 570 MtCO₂eq in 2035 and 380 MtCO₂eq in 2040. Japan will establish and implement the Joint Crediting Mechanism (JCM); through public-private collaborations, it aims to secure accumulated emission reductions and removals of approximately 100 MtCO₂eq by FY 2030 and approximately 200 MtCO₂eq by FY 2040.

This NDC is more ambitious than the first one, which targeted a 46% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 compared to 2013 (up from a initial target of 26%), as Japan aims to reach net zero by 2050. However the reference year - 2013, when nuclear power plants were offline in the wake of the Fukushima disaster and when thermal power generation was at its highest level - remains the same. Since their 2013 peak, Japan's GHG emissions have declined by 2.5%/year, reaching 1,094 Mt in 2023. The 570 MtCO₂eq target by 2035 would correspond to a 48% cut compared to 2023 and the 380 MtCO₂eq target by 2040 to a 65% cut.