According to the 2013 edition of the World Energy Outlook (WEO-2013) published by the International Energy Agency, global energy demand is expected to rise by one-third by 2035. Asia will continue to drive the increase in global energy demand, but China will move towards a back seat in the 2020s as India and countries in Southeast Asia take the lead in driving consumption higher. The Middle East also moves to centre stage as an energy consumer, becoming the world’s second-largest gas consumer by 2020 and third-largest oil consumer by 2030, redefining its role in global energy markets. Brazil will maintain one of the least carbon-intensive energy sectors in the world, despite experiencing an 80% increase in energy use to 2035 and moving into the top ranks of global oil producers. Energy demand in OECD countries barely rises and by 2035 is less than half that of non-OECD countries. Low-carbon energy sources will meet around 40% of the growth in global energy demand. In some regions, rapid expansion of wind and solar PV raises fundamental questions about the design of power markets and their ability to ensure adequate investment and long-term reliability.
On the supply side, new technology and high prices will open up new oil resources, but rising oil output from North America and Brazil will not be sufficient to reduce the role of OPEC countries: the Middle East, as the only large source of low-cost oil, will take back its role as a key source of oil supply growth from the mid-2020s.
Energy-related CO2 emissions are projected to rise by 20% to 2035, leaving the world on track for a long-term average temperature increase of 3.6°C, far above the internationally-agreed 2°C climate target. The report emphasises the importance of carefully designed subsidies to renewables, which totalled $101bn in 2012 and expand to $220bn in 2035 to support the anticipated level of deployment.