The IEA's World Energy Outlook 2015 (WEO-2015) announces that energy demand should grow by one-third by 2040, with the net growth driven entirely by developing countries (central scenario). This corresponds to around 1.0%/year on average by 2040, about half the average annual rate since 1990. This slow-down will be reached thanks to increased energy efficiency in end uses and structural changes in the economy.
The IEA projects that oil prices will only rebound slowly. In the central scenario it sees oil prices rebalancing in 2020 at US$80/bbl, with increases in the years following.
The WEO-2015 put the focus on China and India that are forecasted to be the two largest energy consumers in 2014. Although China has entered a much less energy-intensive phase in its development, it remains by far the world’s largest producer and consumer of coal throughout the period until 2040. The country should overtake the United States as the biggest consumer of oil and has a larger gas market than the EU in 2030. China’s total energy demand in 2040 is almost double that of the USA.
India is foreseen to contribute for around 25% of global energy demand increase by 2040. The IEA predicts a rapid growth in energy consumption resulting in a surge of demand for coal in power generation and industry as its remains uncertainty over the pace at which new large dams or nuclear plants can be built in the country.
Renewables are set to become the leading source of new energy supply from now to 2040. Their deployment grows worldwide, with a strong concentration in the power sector where renewables overtake coal as the largest source of electricity generation by the early-2030s. Renewables-based generation reaches 50% in the EU by 2040, around 30% in China and Japan, and above 25% in the United States and India.
The net result of the changes seen in the WEO-2015 central scenario is that the growth in energy-related emissions slows dramatically, but the emissions trajectory implies a long-term temperature increase of 2.7 °C by 2100. A major course correction is still required to achieve the world's agreed climate goal.