According to the IEA's 2014 Medium-Term Gas Market Report, global gas demand is expected to slowdown between 2014 and 2019, growing at the average rate of 2.2%/year compared to the 2.4%/year forecast of the previous outlook.
Chinese gas consumption is expected to nearly double (+90%) by 2019, offsetting a slight slowdown in other regions. Gas is increasingly used in China due to pollution reduction targets, to the detriment of coal, and domestic gas production is expected to grow by 65%, from 117 bcm in 2013 to 193 bcm in 2019, thanks to unconventional resources. However, China will continue to import half of its gas demand.
European demand is expected to remain below its 2010 peak by 2019, due to a low growth in the demand from the power sector and to renewable policies. In the Middle East, low regulated gas prices are expected to hinder upstream investment and lead to wasteful consumption; consequently, producing countries are not expected to achieve their full production potential and some countries may even experience gas shortages.
LNG trade is expected to rise by 40% to reach 450 bcm by 2019. Half of all new LNG exports will originate from Australia, while North America will account for around 8% of the global LNG trade by 2019. With many liquefaction projects planned in Austria, Canada and the United States, private sector operators will take the lead in the expansion of the LNG market, shifting away from the traditional dominance of state-owned suppliers.