According to the 2016 Medium-Term Gas Market Report released by the International Energy Agency (IEA), global gas consumption should increase by 1.5%/year between 2016 and 2021, a slightly lower pace than that projected in the previous outlook (2%/year). The decline in the energy intensity of the global economy will slow primary energy demand and fossil fuel demand, including gas; however, the share of gas in the energy mix should slightly increase by 2021, unlike oil and coal.
In the United States, gas demand is expected to stagnate (increase in gas-fired generation only to replace retired coal-fired capacities), as in Europe, while gas demand in China should recover (+4%/year) after having slowed down in 2015 (no adjustment of gas prices on the Chinese market leading to substitutions towards oil products in industry). It should also grow significantly in India (+6%/year).
In spite of a weak gas demand, global LNG exports are expected to increase significantly, thanks to a 45% increase in liquefaction capacities, mostly in the United States and Australia: by 2021, Australia will rival Qatar as the largest LNG exporter worldwide, closely followed by the United States. This new supply should keep spot gas prices under pressure and will increase competition among producers to retain or gain access to European customers.