According to the Medium-Term Oil Market Report released by the International Energy Agency (IEA), global oil supply could lag behind demand after 2020 if new projects are not approved soon.
The IEA expects oil supply to grow in the United States, Canada, Brazil and elsewhere in the next few years but this growth should stall by 2020 if investments don't pick up in 2017. The IEA plans the United States to account for the bulk of new supplies by 2022, with production rising by 1.4 to 3 mb/d by 2022 (depending if oil prices remain around US$60/bbl or rise to US$80/bbl); a decline in global oil prices to US$50/bbl could reduce US oil production from the early 2020s. Within the OPEC, major low-cost Middle Eastern producers, namely Iraq, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates should account for the bulk of new supplies, while oil production should decline in Nigeria, Algeria and Venezuela. Oil production in Russia is expected to remain stable by 2022.
Oil demand, on the other side, should pass the 100 mb/d threshold in 2019 and reach 104 mb/d by 2022, as developing countries and Asia should continue to account for 70% of the additional demand. The IEA expects Indian oil demand growth to outpace China by 2022.