Skip to main content

IAEA slightly cuts back on nuclear prediction

The latest IAEA study estimates that the global nuclear power generating capacity should increase by at least 17% by 2030, while the high projection suggests a 94% growth, i.e. nearly a doubling in global generation capacity. In other words, growth in nuclear power following the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident is expected to continue, however at a rate lower than estimated prior to the accident. Over the short term, the low price of natural gas and the promotion of renewable energy sources in some energy policies are expected to impact nuclear growth prospects in several regions of the developed world. These low natural gas prices are partly due to low demand as a result of macroeconomic conditions, as well as technological advances, notably with fracture techniques to extract shale gas. Moreover, the on-going financial crisis continues to present challenges for capital intensive projects such as nuclear power. In the long run, nuclear generating capacity is expected to play an important role in the energy mix due to growth in population and in demand for electricity in the developing world, as well as climate change concerns, security of energy supply and price volatility for other fuels.