Germany’s Security of Electricity Supply Report, approved by the government, warns that rare electricity shortfalls could occur as early as 2030 if the country’s energy transition slows. Published by the Federal Network Agency (Bundesnetzagentur), the report outlines two scenarios assessing the future reliability of the power system up to 2035.
In the target scenario, where political and legal goals are met, up to 22.4 GW of new controllable capacity is needed by 2035. In the delayed transition scenario, that requirement rises to 35.5 GW, reflecting slower renewable deployment, insufficient demand flexibility, and delays in grid expansion. In such a scenario, additional reserves outside the electricity market would have to be used for security of supply. According to the report, the development of flexibility potentials with new consumers such as heat pumps, storage systems, electric cars or electrolysers or power-to-gas plants as well as industrial load flexibility could make a significant contribution to security of supply. In addition, storage systems are expected to play an increasingly important role.
To strengthen supply security, Germany is in discussions with the European Commission to launch tenders for up to 20 GW of gas-fired power capacity, with a first auction expected by the end of the year, ahead of a major government review of energy demand and transition strategies.