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Germany is expected to miss its 2030 and 2045 climate targets without additional measures

The German Federal Environment Agency has released its 2023 projection report, showing that the country’s climate targets for 2030 and 2045 are at risk without the introduction of additional measures. Although progress has been made, there is still a 331 MtCO2eq gap in reducing GHG emissions by 2030. Even planned measures won't close this gap entirely, making the goal of net GHG neutrality by 2045 unattainable.

Under the “with measures” scenario, which considers only currently planned measures, the country will miss its 2030 target with a 63% reduction relative to 1990 level, while a second scenario "with further measures" achieves its 65% reduction objective. Sectors like transport, buildings, and industry miss their targets in both scenarios. Energy, agriculture, and waste management sectors exceed their targets, partially compensating for other sectors' shortfalls.

The sectors related to land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) fail to meet their 2030, 2040, and 2045 targets in both scenarios. German climate targets at the European level are also missed, with a significant gap in emissions falling under the European Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR). Both scenarios fall short of the 2045 net (GHG) neutrality target, predicting emissions of 229 MtCO2eq in that year.