The Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) has released its Global Gas Outlook 2050, which forecasts global investments in the gas sector to reach US$9,700bn by 2050. The GECF expects economic growth to improve global energy accessibility and to unlock nearly 30% of additional energy demand, with gas gaining momentum as an alternative to coal-fired and oil-fired generation and as a flexible option to complement renewable power generation. Gas could be the sole hydrocarbon source to increase its share until 2050, spurred by air quality issues, environmental concerns, coal-to-gas generation switching and economic and population growth. It could overtake oil as the most consumed energy and account for 27% of the global primary energy mix (compared to 26% for oil and 18% for coal, whose share should fall sharply). Around 2/3 of additional gas demand volumes could come from the power generation sector - its gas consumption would rise by 1.7%/year - and from the industrial sector (+1.2%/year).
The GECF expects gas production to increase by 1.3%/year through 2050, thanks to a continued growth in North America, followed by Eurasia, Africa and the Middle East. Gas production in GECF countries would grow by nearly 50% by 2050. A rising share of gas production will come from unconventional resources, which should account for 38% of the total gas production by 2050, compared to 25% currently. New liquefaction capacities should spur LNG trade: the global liquefaction capacity should double by 2050 (many projects will be commissioned by 2030), with the United States, Australia, Qatar, Russia and Mozambique leading the growth in export capacity. Consequently, LNG trade is expected to exceed total pipeline trade by 2050, with LNG volumes growing by 2.9%/year to more than 50% of total exports by 2030 (compared to 1.2%/year for pipeline trade).