Future US CO₂ emissions will depend on Clean Power Plan adoption

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the level of future energy-related CO₂ emissions in the United States will significantly depend on the implementation of the Clean Power Plan (CPP) rule issued in August 2015 by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

The Clean Power Plan proposed aims to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the power sector by 32% by 2030 from 2005 levels; it was blocked by the Supreme Court in February 2016 and its enforcement is currently on hold pending judicial review.

In the reference case (the CPP is implemented using the mass-based option, i.e. controlling the amount of CO₂ emissions) rather than the rate-based option, i.e. limiting the rate of CO₂ emissions per unit of electricity), power-sector emissions should be 28% lower than their 2005 level in 2022 and 35% lower over the 2030-2040 period. In the case of the CPP does not come into effect, energy-related emissions would be 7% above that forecast in the reference case in 2022 and about 25% higher this reference case forecast over the 2030-2040 period; however, they would still remain below the 2005 level.

The share of the power sector in total energy-related CO₂ emissions is expected to decline from its current 36% to 31% by 2030 in the reference case (implemented CPP) but would remain stable around 36% in the No-CPP case.

In both cases, significant retirements of coal-fired capacities are expected in the near term (40 GW in 2016): in the No-CPP case, around 20 GW of capacity would retire from 2017 to 2040 but retirements could reach 55 GW by 2040 in the reference case where the CPP is adopted.