According to preliminary estimates by the German energy association AGEB, primary energy consumption in Germany should decline by nearly 8% in 2023 to a record low level (more than 25% below the 1990 peak level), due to degraded economic conditions and a much lower demand from energy-intensive industries, whose production declined in 2023. The warmer weather also contributed to reducing energy consumption to a lesser extent (7% drop in energy consumption adjusted for weather conditions), while demographic growth slightly offset the decline in energy consumption.
Fossil fuel consumption is estimated to decline in 2023. Oil consumption should dip by 5.5%, with declines in consumption of diesel (-4%), light heating oil (-2%) and crude oil for the chemical industry (-17%) and increases for gasoline (+2%) and aviation fuel (+4%), accounting for 36% of the energy mix (from 35% in 2022). Gas consumption fell by more than 4% - despite a 1% increase from the power sector - as consumption fell in industry, households, services, and district heating (24.5% of the energy mix in 2023). Hard coal consumption fell by 17% (-30% for power plants, while demand from the iron and steel industry dipped by 2%) to 9% of the energy mix, along with lignite consumption (-22%, including -23% for power plants) that reached 8.5% of the energy mix ; the lower demand from the power sector is due to a lower electricity demand, the gradual phase-out of coal and lignite-fired power plants, higher wind generation and electricity imports.
Nuclear power generation fell by almost 80% in 2023, as the last three nuclear power plants were decommissioned in mid-April 2023, covering 0.7% of the energy mix (from over 3% in 2022). Electricity imports rose by 38%, while exports fell by 24%, and Germany became a net electricity importer for the first time since 2002. Renewable power generation rose by around 5% in 2023, thanks to a higher wind generation, especially in the second half of the year (+15%), higher hydropower generation (+11%), and solar generation to a lesser extent (+1%) ; meanwhile, biomass consumption declined by 4%. Overall, renewables accounted for nearly 20% of the energy mix (up from 18% in 2022).
Energy-related CO2 emissions are estimated to fall by 10% in 2023.