According to the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA), recent trends in the domestic biofuels sector are likely to continue until 2020. In particular, fuel ethanol production and net imports of biomass-based diesel are slated to remain unchanged, while fuel ethanol exports will slightly decrease.
US ethanol exports have been rising since 2013 and reached nearly 110,000 bbl/d in 2018. They are predicted to drop to 90,000 bbl/d over the 2019-2020 period. Fuel ethanol output will remain stable near current levels and slightly diminish to 1.04 mb/d in 2019 before rising again to 1.05 mb/d in 2020. Biomass-based diesel production (excluding renewable diesel) stood at 120,000 bbl/d in 2018 and should increase to 160,000 bbl/d in 2020. Besides, the total domestic biomass-based diesel consumption will grow as well from 134,000 bbl/d in 2018 to about 174,000 bbl/d in 2020.
The EIA also reports that biofuels currently account for relatively small share of total transportation fuels despite the support of the federal Renewable Fuel Standard and state-level biofuel support programmes. Out of the 9.36 mb/d of motor gasoline consumption expected for 2020, domestic ethanol consumption will contribute about 950,000 bbl/d only, which is about 10%. Diesel fuel consumption is predicted to reach 3.9 mb/d in 2020 and the share of biomass-based diesel in diesel fuel is set to reach 4.5% in 2020 (about 170,000 bbl/d).