The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that energy-related CO2 emissions in the US will drop between 25% and 38% below their 2005 levels (5,803 MtCO2) in 2030, according to the EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2023. Emissions would decrease by 25% in 2030 under the combined high economic growth and high zero-carbon technology cost assumptions and by as much as 38% under low economic growth and low zero-carbon technology cost assumptions. Under the reference scenario, energy-related CO2 emissions would be 33% lower in 2030, compared to 2005.
The EIA also projects that, after 2030, energy-related CO2 emissions will stabilise at around 4,000 MtCO2/year until 2050 under the reference scenario. However, they may vary depending on the low economic growth or high economic growth scenarios. Under these, emissions in 2050 could stand between 21% and 45% under the 2005 levels.
The EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook 2023 also forecasts that, under the reference scenario, solar PV installed capacity could reach 338 GW in 2030 and nearly 695 GW in 2050 (107 GW in 2021). Wind capacity could reach 290 GW in 2030 (with 10 GW offshore) and 350 GW in 2050 (with 23 GW offshore). Solar capacity stood at 107 GW in 2021, while wind capacity stood at 133 GW.
As for power generation, solar PV could provide 770 TWh by 2030 and 1,490 TWh by 2050 (149 TWh in 2021). Wind could generate 935 TWh in 2030 (32 TWh offshore) and 1,132 TWh by 2050 (85 TWh offshore). Solar generated 149 TWh in 2021, while wind generated 384 TWh.